Equity Technical Charts Richard Schulz
Recent history of posted Equity Charts and Analysis
11/08/16 Equity trend reversing sharply higher.
SPY Weekly 04/27/16 1430:
Addendum: SPY rose to a high of 212.52 on 6/8, +1.3%. The 4/27 chart has even more merit now, with the 6/6-10 lower week.)
This chart features risk/reward. The risk is a 2+% rise to 213-5, the
previous highs and upper 2.0 BB. The reward is a 3-5% fall to 199-203,
moving average congestion, and the inner 1.0 BB average. Below that are
the lower inner 1.0 BB (190) and lower outer 2.0 BB (185). The most
probable is both, in 2 legs lower, over at least 1 mth.
Unlike most US Presidential cycles (equities higher into the election),
2016 is most likely to have global equity weakness into early 2017,
reflected in the TAO 10 planetary Transit Aspect Oscillator. Its values
remain below zero into 2017. The Central Banks unprecedented policies
are treading upon globally warming Arctic ice.
SPX Weekly 7/1/16 1500: (Posted 7/4, enjoy inverse index ETFs.)
Once again, this chart features risk/reward. The risk is a 2% rise to
2120-34, the previous 2015-16 highs. The reward is a 3-5+% fall to
below the recent 1990 low. The 9/25/9 is primed to give a significant
sell on any 2+ day lower price trend. The 4/9/16 wk ma's have congested
around 2070, also indicative of an imminent trend change (lower).
The week of 7/5 produces the initial break of 2070, then below
the lower inner 1.1BB at 2050. The Brexit break to 1990 has now reduced
the buying power there, therefore when tested, 1990 will not provide
much support. By then, all the ma's will have turned lower, and the
9/25/9 exponential MACD will be extending into a protracted decline
below zero. Given the new weekly lows established in Jan/Feb, the longer weekly trend will probably not stop until well below 1830.
The TAO 10 planetary Transit Aspect Oscillator remains below zero
(pessimism and negative economic/political outcomes) into 2017.
SPX Daily 8/19/16 1500: Trend change lower Imminent.
This SP 500 chart has the extended (5wks) feature of essentially
unchanged, with the lowest 5wk range in memory. To state the obvious,
this will change. Likely, a 10+% equity slide soon.
The 9/1 Solar Eclipse is one major factor, replete with hard aspects.
For the SE USA, a major hurricane landfall is almost likely, added to
the Louisiana disastrous flooding (the Lunar Cap ingress with both
Jupiter & Neptune). The Eclipse will coincide with multiple, major
In the SPX chart
below, the BBs are almost maximally narrowed (trend likely to
initiate). A lower BB breakout (2157) is probable, then extending
to/beyond 2135, the 64ema/49ama pair. The 169ema near 2077 is
relatively important support, only temporarily recently broken post
Brexit, and is a primary target for the next few weeks. The 9/25 MACD
is prepped to plunge. Increased Volatility for the 8/22 week+.
$SPX Weekly 9/30/16 1500 Close.
Brexit extended and ended a 2mth correction on 6/24-27, with a
thrust higher that week. The Sep 6-9 decline negated that, and started
the MACD lower. The weak, irregular rally of the last 2wks has not
reversed the weakening 9/16/4 exp MACD.
The upside for SPX next week is limited by the upper 1.0 BB at 2189,
1%. That will likely happen early in the Oct 3 week, with several lower
weeks to follow. The first stop is 2100-20, then 2088, and freefall to
about 2030, the rising lower 2.0 BB.
The 4wk ama is below the 9wk (5% correction minimum usually). Both the
4wk and 9wk are forecast to move lower than the 16wk ema = Bear
conditions, and similar to both Aug and Dec 2015.
SPY 11/04/16 1500 Close, 121min chart.
"Comey one, Comey all..." and enjoy the sharp, sustained rally. Expo
will Reverse Long today, with 0930 being likely. This 121min chart (4
data/day) was ready to rally when the FBI FIBbed and Flubbed. SPY rises
to beyond 216.50 (upper 2.0 BB) and $SPX exceeds 2170, by end Nov and
probably much sooner. A 5-10% rally, unleveraged, likely new highs for
IWM 03/03/17 0855 Daily.
probably was The high for a long time. The ma's have or soon will roll
short. The MACD has now posted its primary lower high over the last 3
month period. The 1st MACD lower highs usually produce corrections.
This 2nd primary lower high precedes outright liquidation selling. XIV
is again selling this am at 66.16. The canary is keeling over...