Some Primary Numeric and other Cycles:
25 year Generational:
The 25-28 year Generational cycle is probably a sub-set (harmonic) of the longer 75-84 year cycle. The four most recent manifestations of this cycle were in 1907, 1929-37, 1956-57, 1980-1982, and Now, 2007-???. somc postulates that the longer astronomic cycles are related to this 25-28 year cycle, and will do further research with the TAO to consider those probabilites statistically. Every third cycle seems to carry increased importance: after the 1789 inauguration of US President Washington, the 1860's civil war, the 1930's Depression, and Now, probable depression.
This cycle, at its best, tends to produce long and grinding Bear markets (falling stock prices). At its worst, it correlates with financial calamities. From current market behavior (3/8/09), we are in a global financial crises, now.
10 year Numeric:
This 10-year negative economic cycle usually appears during the 6th and/or 7th year of every decade. It just happens frequently--no one knows "why". I suggest that it is linked to the 20 year Jupiter/Saturn cycle, that, in a TAO perspective, has a variable negative intensity every 10 years. It is correlated with significant, and sometimes rapid, drops in stock prices and other assets. High to low, the periods had declines in assets/stocks averaging 20% (substantial corrections being more likely). The most recent noted 10 year cycles occurred in 1906-7, 1916, 1926, 1937, 1946, 1956-7, 1966, 1976, 1987, 1996, and 2006. Also, the "8" years tend to be among the most profitable, with 2008 being a notable exception. I think the profitability of the "8" years is a rebound effect of the preceding "6" and "7" years. This time, 2006-7 had some sharp drops, but on the whole had rising stock prices, and thus the rebound effect in the "8" year, this time, was negative.
8 year US Presidential Cycle:
Starting with 1907, the 8-year US Presidential cycle has been one of the most reliable indicators of market variability. The negative periods tend to occur around the 6th year of two term Presidents, followed by significant rallies into the next election. The declines averaged, high to low, about 20%; and the subsequent rallies similar in magnitude. The years include 1907, 1917 (premature related to WWI), 1926, 1937-8, 1946 (would have been Roosevelt's second #2 term), 1957, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1998, and 2006. 2006 was a failure of this cycle. 2006-07 had several short, sharp (about 5-10%) declines, followed rapidly by higher highs. 2008 was The Failure, with the beginning of a Depressionary decline.
I wrote at the time, in Newsletter issues #9 (Aug 07) and #10 (Feb 08): "This cycle is probably extinct. It is likely to decrease in force under increasing global economic influences. May--Aug 2006 was a mild decline for this cycle. I suggest that two primary factors are at work: 1) the US is no longer The dominant economic force in the world. Both Europe and Asia emerged as equal economic powerhouses in the 2000's (and even later 1990's). 2) As the US and European baby-boomers begin to retire in larger numbers, they are not as interested in the promise of growth and prosperity by a new Presdential candidate, but rather in stability and security. The escalating dependence on and promise of entitlements now dominates; neither of those favors sustainable economic growth."
The FED cycle:
The US Federal Reserve Bank is a private institution governed by Federal laws that controls both the supply and value of the US Dollar. I am calling it a cycle, because the FED oscillates between stimulative and constrictive monetary policies. Since its creation in 1913, the FED has engineered a 90+% Decline in the value of a US Dollar. The debasement of the US currency allows the US Government (and its politicians) to spend more than is earned, and pay back the promisary notes (debt/bonds) with cheaper dollars. This has worked, and will continue to work, as long as there is faith in the US Dollar, both domestically and globally. That faith is Not guaranteed, and a future sudden devaluation is possible, unlike the gradual 90% devaluation to this date.
Like the US Governemnt, the FED also has Presidents, the current one being Ben Bernacke. In global economic effect, the President of the FED rivals, if not exceeds at times, the power of the US President. The FED cycle is probably linked with the cycles of the US, and there is a reliable primary chart that I use for that (not to be disclosed at this time). This chart responds to the Generational cycles discussed first in this section.
The Kondratieff Cycle:
A theoretical 54+/- year cycle that interrelates with the Generational cycle. They both probably derive from the same longer term astronomical oscillations. With a TAO perspective, these longer oscillations will vary both in intensity and timing.
The rhythms of the outer Planets take centuries to re-occur with any regularity and exactitude.
Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz