Schulz   on  Market  Cycles                                               Richard  Schulz


Trading  Notes  History

2017

02/17 0700: The illusion that DJT's policies can ever be funded, much less work, is persistent.


02/08 0700: Now for the Eclipse effects.  Even Nasx & AAPL/GS driven Dow will roll short 2/8-9-10...as the US Gov unravels...

02/07 0800: Many Expo T shifts 2/6.  Today, a day of digestion, followed by indigestion...  The 2/26 Eclipse nears, and over the next 3+ weeks, many more upheavals, disillusions, disbeliefs (the unbelievables happen), floods of grief, figuratively and literally...

02/06 0800: Global equities (markets) coiled.  Equities to break lower, US/German bonds higher, Currencies & Gold neutral, Oil lower.

02/03 0740: NFP neutral, with a post futures rally.  Today, equity highs early, and ideally with a lower close.

02/02 0700: The Expo T page is active, and usable.  More to be added.  As the TAO and technical factors erode...  The first 2017 major equity lows due in April.  NFP 2/3, at best producing an early equity spike = a selling opportunity...

02/01 1500: A major change for the use of this site.  Expo T Tactical (Fast) in tandem with Expo T Strategic (Slower).  This offers longer term positioning with shorter term trading, utilizing Expo T's multiple time frame potentials,

01/31 0700: Wild/Nuts man (the Pres, with 2 + Personality disorders, and then some) continues swinging = equity shorting benefits.  In the past, money has bought W/N man some immunity from the consequences of his actions.  Now, "The Emperor has no clothes"...

0700:  Fortunately or unfortunately the USA has a PCP (Putin Comey President) and one who is mentally ill.  Refer BPD Wikipedia.

01/23 0710: The IWM Expo T has been short since 1/6 1430 at 135.90, and is weakening further.  XIV will soon trigger the collapse.
1/23:  The W.H.O. ICD-10 Dx Manual:  The US Pres = 5 major Personality disorders: 1) Narcissistic, 2) Histrionic,      3) Emotionally Unstable, 4) Paranoid and 5) Antisocial (to varying degrees).

    =  The USA President , DJ,T is a global risk.  "Wild Man".   DJT's  Dx's are entrenched for life.

2017


5 - 15:     DJT is too mentally ill to lie well.

6 - 6  0730:  Maybe finally the equity uprooting begins.  Today, plain lower.

6 - 5  0800:  Today, equities choppy early, resolving lower.

6 - 2  0800:  NFP confirms GDP weakness, and the slide into recession.  Into 2018, onset global depression.  For today, re-entering TZA.

6 - 1  1400:  Win some, and give away 5% others...the price of traveling sometimes.  Looks like an equity rally into 6-2, then reassess.

5 -31 0840:  The Hindenberg omen of internal equity weakness and divergence has been alive and well for awhile now.  Sooner or later... As usual, there will be hindsight brilliant analysis of the "why's".  Cycles are cycles--ongoing and repetitive.  Equities are entering a severe, prolonged downdraft.  Leaving for Lake Havasu ~1100.  For today, more might be apparent by then...  Enjoy...

5 -30 0900:  Positions ok, and improving.  Lower equity day, and week.  The persistent descent begins.  Bonds+.  Leaving LA today.

5 -24 0730:  5-23 didn't work.  IWM & NYSE Expo T Fast call for the same: equity highs early, with a lower close.

5 -23 0800:  Equity high early, closing lower.  No intra-day monitoring.

5 -22 0800:  Equities: the highs early, then weakening, Rebound rally ends.  Lower week.  Enjoying the national parks of the SW.

5 -18 0700:  Strategic IWM Expo T in TZA from 4-26, and holding, now likely into June.  Traveling @1100...into the SW for 2wks.

5 -17 0800:  Almost buying TZA & UVXY on the 5-16 close...  Waiting this am for the rebound rally, then look short.

5 -16 0720:  So far, setting up for an irregular day.  Equity bias is mixed.

5 -15 0750:  A repeated equity theme recently: today, equity highs early, then weakening.  Perceived Pence as Pres is ok, for awhile...

5 -12 0630:  Away prior to open until ~1000.  This am, staying short.

DD

7 - 26 0730: ExpO T UUP went long (FXE short) 7-25. That is likely to reverse all other sectors (except GLD) soon (today??).

7 - 25 0740: Today equities peak early, then declining into the FED 7-26, and beyond.

7 - 24 0730: Equity Exponential Momentum--the ExpO Ts--is weakening.  The next phase, acceleration of the decline, is likely this week.

7 - 21 0810: Revised Equity ExpO Ts and USO all reversed short 7-20.  Bonds, FXE and Gold remain long. Enjoy...

7 - 11 0730: Parallel 7/10, but weaker earlier.  USA Reality check soon: Congressional logjams, earnings, indictments,...the totality of the Eclipse.

7 - 10 0800: Equity highs early, into a lower close, and very likely lower week/month, into Oct.  Australian BC's Chris Uhlmann: Yes!

7 -, 7  0740:  A digestion day, with equity weakness later.  Ideally, short into 7/10.  The ExpO trends extend the recent declines.

7 - 6  0750:  Today, equities (much) lower. This Bear will take few prisoners.  Away for bridge until ~1300. 

7 - 5  0750:  Equity highs early, closing lower.  And, Expo T Fast.  It's been 9+mths of work, and "you have potential" is materializing...

7 - 3  0700:  Projecting equity highs by 1100am.  Likely global crisis by the total solar eclipse, Aug 21.

6 - 30 0500:  Away unexpectedly for a funeral all day, out of state.  No statement today.

6 - 29 0730:  Equities remain vulnerable.  As with 6-28: "...decline trend to resume".   LQD to reverse higher soon.

6 - 28 0750:  Stop on open probable.  From 0330, VIX dive.  For now, waiting for the equity decline trend to resume.

6 - 27 0730:  Expo T reversals starting to appear.  Equities: the counter-trend rally is done.  Today, TZA and UVXY likely early, ??hold into 6/28.

6 - 26 0800:  Equities reversed higher during the last 2 weeks.  Today, highs early, then weakening.

6 - 13 through 23:  Aplus hosting issues (non-functional).

6 - 12 0730: Today, lower bias.  6-13, accelerating.  At a critical juncture.  6-14 FED.  This week is full of data impacts.  Redoing Expo T, ETF and  ETVF, probable final version for awhile.  It's taken 8 months to work the Expo Ts this far.  There are infinite variations.  Refinements now work well.

6 - 9  0750:  Today (hints from 6-8), equity highs (minimal) 1st 1-2hrs, then declining, maybe sharply. Bond lows early, then resuming longer rally.

6 - 8  0700:  Of all the am's to play bridge...Buffett and Gates understand...  Comey = a volatile financial markets day, More ~1300 when returning.

6 - 7  0700:  Markets seem to be ok with Pence.  Indictments likely by the Eclipse..


DD  
8 - 29 0800: Today, an equity thrust lower.  A mistake with reversals yesterday.  The equity trend is lower. 

8 - 23 0750: The prior and after effects of this Eclipse...and now for the accelerated equity decline...

8 - 22 0740: Missed the XIV buy.  The Eclipse... Hopefully, you are riding it.  Sometime today is the safe exit.  It might last into 8-23 however...

8 - 18 0700: Equity Bear trend is now set The temptation: buying XIV on the 8/17 close.  Patience and discipline.  Selling rallies.

8 - 17 0800: Equity declines continue.  The Eclipse has been effective: inserting doubt and caution.

8 - 16 0800: Today ends the rally.  Into October, a large global equity decline awaits.

8 - 15 0700: 2nd day of a bear market rally, and nearing overhead.  Most likely, resuming TZA and UVXY tomorrow. 

8 - 14 0700: A rebound rally.  Today, erratic.

8 - 10 0600: Overnight verifies the trend lower for equities, globally.  Trading patterns dynamically change to Bear strategies: 1) selling rallies and now,  2) holding short for a few days+.  Near the open, XIV exiting.  Then, waiting for opportunities.  Away until ~1300.

8 -  8 1100.:  8/8  0700:    7 - 25/26/27 ended the Bull

8 -  4 0735:  XIV, from 10min to wkly, is set for sharp declines = Volatility rising.  Maybe starting today.

8 -  3 0750:  "IT", whatever "it" is, hasn't happened yet.  Patience and discipline.  Avoiding chop.  Then, more patience and discipline.

8 -  1 0730:  Another VIX decline day at the office...  Today, observing TZA.  Rising support is 15.53-15.63.

7 - 31 0730: Today, equity highs early, closing lower.  Significant declines are very likely into Oct.

7 - 28 0800: May have to leave early for the day.  The equity dam is leaking...

7 - 27 0730: Patience and discipline...

2017

9 -29 0800:  The -4.2% TZA was the wrong model (XIV correct).  TZA is now the most likely large gainer.  Today, all equity indexes lower.

9 -28 0800:  IWM will unwind, starting today?...likely.  Then the spreads favor TZA.  Today and 9/29, lower equities.

9 -27 0730:  Aside from operator error (my mistakes), an irregularly grinding higher IWM is the worst for my models.  Patience and discipline.  And as I wrote on 2/17... (below), no tax revision will occur.  So maybe this am is the last hit of hopium...

9 -25 0700:  Both the Euro and FED balance are now trending lower.  This week, an accelerating equity/asset decline = risk off, deflation.

9 -22 0800:  The ExpO Z table is complete.  Today, equity weakening all day.

9 -20 1040:  ExpO Z  FXE now... ending its rally.  The FED's action today = USD higher = risk off, deflationary...for months??

9 -19 0740:  Overnight oil and currencies buoyed equities.  Eclipse effects continue.  Weather (Puerto Rico defaults, among others), Atomic 2.0 (NK and Iran), USA subpoenas, indictments accelerating.  One of the last sunny days at the North Pole.  Today for equities, buyer beware.

9 -18 0720:  Equity futures globally made ~0100am highs.  Proceeding lower all day.  Leaving for 1hr at 0810.

9 -15 0740:  Cassini meets Saturn.  Equities meet the Cliff.  Same result...gravity wins... Today, mixed early, then resolving lower.

9 -14 0740:  Positions are ok into today.  XIV is reversing short = the essence of the "news"...

9 -13 0800:  Nibbling at the equity short side today...both TZA and UVXY likely.

9 -12 0800:  The terminal equity rally, maybe lasting into 9/18-19.  Weaker upside today.  Leaving at ~1040.

9 -11 0800:  Clueless.  So after going flat with losses, patience...

9 -  8 0730:  Ideally, equities irregularly weaken all day.

9 -  7 0730:  Entering shorts this am, the next equity leg lower.  Time/price posted later.  Leaving for bridge ~ 0840.

9 -  6 0800:  Expecting 0.4-0.7% rebound, ending by mid 9-7.  Some major indexes gapped lower 9-5; others didn't.  Patience and discipline.

9 -  5 0750:  ExpO Ts reversed 9-1.  VIX is likely to dominate and guide the equity/economic plunge into Oct and beyond.  Risk is very, very high.

9 -  1 0750:  Seasonality (pre Labor day) boost is over.  ETVF models lost. Now for reversals, and Irma, and subpoenas, and Congress chaos...

                                             and now finally, more notable assessments that DJT is less than sane...