Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
Trading Notes History
02/17 0700: The illusion that DJT's policies can ever be funded, much less work, is persistent.
0700: Now for the Eclipse effects. Even Nasx & AAPL/GS driven Dow
will roll short 2/8-9-10...as the US Gov unravels...
0800: Many Expo T shifts 2/6. Today, a day of digestion, followed by
indigestion... The 2/26 Eclipse nears, and over the next 3+ weeks, many
more upheavals, disillusions, disbeliefs (the unbelievables happen),
floods of grief, figuratively and literally...
0800: Global equities (markets) coiled. Equities to break lower,
US/German bonds higher, Currencies & Gold neutral, Oil lower.
02/03 0740: NFP neutral, with a post futures rally. Today, equity highs early, and ideally with a lower close.
0700: The Expo T page is active, and usable. More to be added. As the
TAO and technical factors erode... The first 2017 major equity lows
due in April. NFP 2/3, at best producing an early equity spike = a
02/01 1500: A
major change for the use of this site. Expo T Tactical (Fast) in tandem
with Expo T Strategic (Slower). This offers longer term positioning
with shorter term trading, utilizing Expo T's multiple time frame
01/31 0700: Wild/Nuts man (the Pres, with 2 +
Personality disorders, and then some) continues swinging = equity
shorting benefits. In the past, money has bought W/N man some immunity
from the consequences of his actions. Now, "The Emperor has no
0700: Fortunately or unfortunately the USA has a PCP
(Putin Comey President) and one who is mentally ill. Refer BPD Wikipedia.
0710: The IWM Expo T has been short since 1/6 1430 at 135.90, and is
weakening further. XIV will soon trigger the collapse.
1/23: The W.H.O. ICD-10 Dx Manual: The US Pres = 5 major Personality disorders: 1) Narcissistic, 2) Histrionic, 3) Emotionally Unstable, 4) Paranoid and 5) Antisocial (to varying degrees).
= The USA President , DJ,T is a global risk. "Wild Man". DJT's Dx's are entrenched for life.
2017 5 - 15: DJT is too mentally ill to lie well.
6 - 6 0730: Maybe finally the equity uprooting begins. Today, plain lower.
6 - 5 0800: Today, equities choppy early, resolving lower.
- 2 0800: NFP confirms GDP weakness, and the slide into recession.
Into 2018, onset global depression. For today, re-entering TZA.
- 1 1400: Win some, and give away 5% others...the price of traveling
sometimes. Looks like an equity rally into 6-2, then reassess.
-31 0840: The Hindenberg omen of internal equity weakness and
divergence has been alive and well for awhile now. Sooner or later...
As usual, there will be hindsight brilliant analysis of the "why's".
Cycles are cycles--ongoing and repetitive. Equities are entering a
severe, prolonged downdraft. Leaving for Lake Havasu ~1100. For today,
more might be apparent by then... Enjoy...
-30 0900: Positions ok, and improving. Lower equity day, and week.
The persistent descent begins. Bonds+. Leaving LA today.
5 -24 0730: 5-23 didn't work. IWM & NYSE Expo T Fast call for the same: equity highs early, with a lower close.
5 -23 0800: Equity high early, closing lower. No intra-day monitoring.
5 -22 0800: Equities: the highs early, then weakening, Rebound rally ends. Lower week. Enjoying the national parks of the SW.
5 -18 0700: Strategic IWM Expo T in TZA from 4-26, and holding, now likely into June. Traveling @1100...into the SW for 2wks.
5 -17 0800: Almost buying TZA & UVXY on the 5-16 close... Waiting this am for the rebound rally, then look short.
5 -16 0720: So far, setting up for an irregular day. Equity bias is mixed.
-15 0750: A repeated equity theme recently: today, equity highs early,
then weakening. Perceived Pence as Pres is ok, for awhile...
5 -12 0630: Away prior to open until ~1000. This am, staying short.
7 - 26 0730: ExpO T UUP went long (FXE short) 7-25. That is likely to reverse all other sectors (except GLD) soon (today??).
7 - 25 0740: Today equities peak early, then declining into the FED 7-26, and beyond.
- 24 0730: Equity Exponential Momentum--the ExpO Ts--is weakening. The
next phase, acceleration of the decline, is likely this week.
7 - 21 0810: Revised Equity ExpO Ts and USO all reversed short 7-20. Bonds, FXE and Gold remain long. Enjoy...
- 11 0730: Parallel 7/10, but weaker earlier. USA Reality check soon:
Congressional logjams, earnings, indictments,...the totality of the
7 - 10 0800: Equity highs
early, into a lower close, and very likely lower week/month, into Oct.
Australian BC's Chris Uhlmann: Yes!
7 0740: A digestion day, with equity weakness later. Ideally, short
into 7/10. The ExpO trends extend the recent declines.
7 - 6 0750: Today, equities (much) lower. This Bear will take few prisoners. Away for bridge until ~1300.
- 5 0750: Equity highs early, closing lower. And, Expo T Fast. It's
been 9+mths of work, and "you have potential" is materializing...
7 - 3 0700: Projecting equity highs by 1100am. Likely global crisis by the total solar eclipse, Aug 21.
6 - 30 0500: Away unexpectedly for a funeral all day, out of state. No statement today.
6 - 29 0730: Equities remain vulnerable. As with 6-28: "...decline trend to resume". LQD to reverse higher soon.
6 - 28 0750: Stop on open probable. From 0330, VIX dive. For now, waiting for the equity decline trend to resume.
- 27 0730: Expo T reversals starting to appear. Equities: the
counter-trend rally is done. Today, TZA and UVXY likely early, ??hold
6 - 26 0800: Equities reversed higher during the last 2 weeks. Today, highs early, then weakening.
6 - 13 through 23: Aplus hosting issues (non-functional).
- 12 0730: Today, lower bias. 6-13, accelerating. At a critical
juncture. 6-14 FED. This week is full of data impacts. Redoing Expo
T, ETF and ETVF, probable final version for awhile. It's taken 8
months to work the Expo Ts this far. There are infinite variations.l.
6 - 9
0750: Today (hints from 6-8), equity highs (minimal) 1st 1-2hrs, then
declining, maybe sharply. Bond lows early, resuming longer rally.
- 8 0700: Of all the am's to play bridge...Buffett and Gates
understand... Comey = a volatile financial markets day.
6 - 7 0700: Markets seem to be ok with Pence. Indictments likely by the Eclipse..
8 - 29 0800: Today, an equity thrust lower. A mistake with reversals yesterday. The equity trend is lower.
8 - 23 0750: The prior and after effects of this Eclipse...and now for the accelerated equity decline...
- 22 0740: Missed the XIV buy. The Eclipse... Hopefully, you are
riding it. Sometime today is the safe exit. It might last into 8-23
8 - 18 0700: Equity Bear
trend is now set The temptation: buying XIV on the 8/17 close. Patience
and discipline. Selling rallies.
8 - 17 0800: Equity declines continue. The Eclipse has been effective: inserting doubt and caution.
8 - 16 0800: Today ends the rally. Into October, a large global equity decline awaits.
8 - 15 0700: 2nd day of a bear market rally, and nearing overhead. Most likely, resuming TZA and UVXY tomorrow.
8 - 14 0700: A rebound rally. Today, erratic.
- 10 0600: Overnight verifies the trend lower for equities, globally.
Trading patterns dynamically change to Bear strategies: 1) selling
rallies and now, 2) holding short for a few days+. Near the open, XIV
exiting. Then, waiting for opportunities. Away until ~1300.
8 - 8 1100.: 8/8 0700: 7 - 25/26/27 ended the Bull
8 - 4 0735: XIV, from 10min to wkly, is set for sharp declines = Volatility rising. Maybe starting today.
- 3 0750: "IT", whatever "it" is, hasn't happened yet. Patience and
discipline. Avoiding chop. Then, more patience and discipline.
8 - 1 0730: Another VIX decline day at the office... Today, observing TZA. Rising support is 15.53-15.63.
7 - 31 0730: Today, equity highs early, closing lower. Significant declines are very likely into Oct.
7 - 28 0800: May have to leave early for the day. The equity dam is leaking...
7 - 27 0730: Patience and discipline...
9 -29 0800: The -4.2% TZA was the wrong model (XIV
correct). TZA is now the most likely large gainer. Today, all equity
9 -28 0800: IWM will unwind, starting today?...likely. Then the spreads favor TZA. Today and 9/29, lower equities.
9 -27 0730: Aside from operator error (my mistakes), an irregularly grinding higher
IWM is the worst for my models. Patience and discipline. And as I
wrote on 2/17... (below), no tax revision will occur. So maybe this am is the last hit of hopium...
-25 0700: Both the Euro and FED balance are now trending lower. This
week, an accelerating equity/asset decline = risk off, deflation.
9 -22 0800: The ExpO Z table is complete. Today, equity weakening all day.
9 -20 1040: ExpO Z FXE now... ending its rally. The FED's action today = USD higher = risk off, deflationary...for months??
-19 0740: Overnight oil and currencies buoyed equities. Eclipse
effects continue. Weather (Puerto Rico defaults, among others), Atomic
2.0 (NK and Iran), USA subpoenas, indictments accelerating. One of the
last sunny days at the North Pole. Today for equities, buyer beware.
9 -18 0720: Equity futures globally made ~0100am highs. Proceeding lower all day. Leaving for 1hr at 0810.
-15 0740: Cassini meets Saturn. Equities meet the Cliff. Same
result...gravity wins... Today, mixed early, then resolving lower.
9 -14 0740: Positions are ok into today. XIV is reversing short = the essence of the "news"...
9 -13 0800: Nibbling at the equity short side today...both TZA and UVXY likely.
9 -12 0800: The terminal equity rally, maybe lasting into 9/18-19. Weaker upside today. Leaving at ~1040.
9 -11 0800: Clueless. So after going flat with losses, patience...
9 - 8 0730: Ideally, equities irregularly weaken all day.
9 - 7 0730: Entering shorts this am, the next equity leg lower. Time/price posted later. Leaving for bridge ~ 0840.
- 6 0800: Expecting 0.4-0.7% rebound, ending by mid 9-7. Some major
indexes gapped lower 9-5; others didn't. Patience and discipline.
- 5 0750: ExpO Ts reversed 9-1. VIX is likely to dominate and guide
the equity/economic plunge into Oct and beyond. Risk is very, very
9 - 1 0750: Seasonality (pre
Labor day) boost is over. ETVF models lost. Now for reversals, and
Irma, and subpoenas, and Congress chaos...and now finally, more notable assessments that DJT is less than sane...
12 - 04 0600: New global equity highs this week. Then DJT's days of reckoning begin in earnest = little US stability.
11-27 to 1-8: In Cologne, Germany, for 6 weeks. With internet reliability & speed problems.
- 15 0730: Equity trading patterns have changed. The EWJ sell (was
long from 9-7) and sustained XIV sell (VIX buy) are significant. So are
the FXE and TLT buys. Both the US and UK are on a collapse plan. The
EU, Japan and China will sink with them. The protective Jupiter/Saturn
waning sextile ended Nov 1st. Jupiter/Saturn now has a primary negative
influence into 2023. We now are entering a fundamental global reset.
These also occurred 1817-1822 and 1917-1922, among others. Inverse
equity ETFs and periodic TLT/Bund buys are one strategic positive route.
11 - 10 0730: Yes, the non-tax plan man cometh. Likely equity short into 11-13. VIX is primed again.
- 06 0730: Patience and discipline. Divergences abound, and DJT "Con
Don" is still loose: into XMas, "...on Donner, on VIXen..".
10 - 30 0730: ~1
month evolving. This week, the global equity/asset deleveraging
accelerates. USD bull, equity bear. The ultimate global depression
lasts into 2022. By 2020, there will be hindsight. Today, initial
equity fall, with a rally into +. 10/31 or 11-1 more serious.
10 - 25 0800: Maybe one more anemic equity rally. VIX ripe.
10 - 17 0805: 10-6 "Finally???...Probably." Not. Today??? More probable... TZA is a longer term buy.
10 - 10 0800: Facebook, Twitter, Google, Microsoft, et.al. vulnerable = ad limitations to be imposed
10 - 9 0800: Not quite probably enough. Again, equity highs early. Later, some negative astro into 10/10.
10 - 6 0750: Finally???... Probably.
- 5 0805: In the last 1 1/2hrs, VIX had a buy spike. Today, equities
irregular early, and again models say lower later. Returning ~1300.
10 - 4 0800: Today, equity marginal highs near open. Then, much lower into 10/5-6-9+. Iceberg dead ahead...
10 - 3 0730: Equities grinding higher continues. Patience and discipline. At least VIX is now near its lower limit...
10 - 2 0800: Equities irregular early, lower by noon into close. ExpO Zs are risk off. October reverses Sept, and then some...
- 1 0750: Seasonality (pre Labor day) boost is over. ETVF models
lost. Now for reversals, and Irma, and subpoenas, and Congress chaos...
And now finally, more notable assessments that DJT is less than sane...
02/17/17 0700: An
illusion (delusion): DJT policies can ever be funded, much less work.
Awaiting the arrival of the tidal waves of health system, budget, tax,
immigration and foreign policy dysfunction. He's too ill to lie well.
Subpoenas/indictments issued by the Eclipse.
5 - 1 0800: Equities: the 2008 parallel, a debt/commodities collapse?
4 -24 1100: Both stocks and bonds trending short, with vix ("bad moon" CCR) rising, and FED tightening..
- 17 0600: Risk-on currencies are topping. FED tightening. Increased
risk for all hard assets: equities, real estate, metals, et.al..
4 - 6 0700: Bear market rallies usually are < 3 days, then another leg lower. This am is typical.
2 - 28 1500: VIX Trades not suitable for this site. Refer to VIX page.
2 - 19: Currencies aligning for a higher USD into 2-20 = equity weakness.
2 - 14: Evolving dual Bears of stocks and bonds. Into 2020+, also hard assets...
2 - 9 1100: All VIX ETFs are suspect, at present. This site will no longer trade them, indefinitely.
2 - 8: Ending the equity rally...
2 - 6 0600: Equities, a 2 day rally (sharp?)
2 - 5: Turning into a continuation. 2 - 2 1400: Bona fide crash possible 2-5.
2 - 1: Global Stock Bear is beginning. USD Bull. Hard asset Bear. 20+y Bond irregular.(1-4wk cycles).
1 - 30 0700: The eventual 2020-2022+ Depression seems like a vacuous vapor at present It is on the horizon, however.
1 - 26: USD usually requires 2+ weeks to form its base.
- 10 0500: All ExpO equities went short 1-9 @1430. 1-9 A turn day to
remember. Both Global Stocks and Bonds very vulnerable.
01 - 09 0800: ExpO Euro is now short, USD long. Equities are more vulnerable; likely to reverse short this week.