Schulz   on  Market  Cycles                                               Richard  Schulz


Trading  Notes  History

2017

02/08 0700: Now for the Eclipse effects.  Even Nasx & AAPL/GS driven Dow will roll short 2/8-9-10...as the US Gov unravels...

02/07 0800: Many Expo T shifts 2/6.  Today, a day of digestion, followed by indigestion...  The 2/26 Eclipse nears, and over the next 3+ weeks, many more upheavals, disillusions, disbeliefs (the unbelievables happen), floods of grief, figuratively and literally...

02/06 0800: Global equities (markets) coiled.  Equities to break lower, US/German bonds higher, Currencies & Gold neutral, Oil lower.

02/03 0740: NFP neutral, with a post futures rally.  Today, equity highs early, and ideally with a lower close.

02/02 0700: The Expo T page is active, and usable.  More to be added.  As the TAO and technical factors erode...  The first 2017 major equity lows due in April.  NFP 2/3, at best producing an early equity spike = a selling opportunity...

02/01 1500: A major change for the use of this site.  Expo T Tactical (Fast) in tandem with Expo T Strategic (Slower).  This offers longer term positioning with shorter term trading, utilizing Expo T's multiple time frame potentials,

01/31 0700: Wild/Nuts man (the Pres, with 2 + Personality disorders, and then some) continues swinging = equity shorting benefits.  In the past, money has bought W/N man some immunity from the consequences of his actions.  Now, "The Emperor has no clothes"...

0700:  Fortunately or unfortunately the USA has a PCP (Putin Comey President) and one who is mentally ill.  Refer BPD Wikipedia.

01/23 0710: The IWM Expo T has been short since 1/6 1430 at 135.90, and is weakening further.  XIV will soon trigger the collapse.
1/23:  The W.H.O. ICD-10 Dx Manual:  The US Pres = 5 major Personality disorders: 1) Narcissistic, 2) Histrionic,      3) Emotionally Unstable, 4) Paranoid and 5) Antisocial (to varying degrees).

    =  The USA President , DJ,T is a global risk.  "Wild Man".   DJT's  Dx's are entrenched for life.

3 - 10 0740: NFP gives a "reason" for buying equities.  The equity Expo Ts sells will endure this 1-2 day rally = provides a selling opportunity.   2017 will be very painful for assets globally.  The "reasons" abound, & the Hindenberg signal reveals internal market divergence.

     After the Titanic struck the iceberg, it was normal on deck, for awhile...as the internal damage cascaded...

3 - 9  0800: 3/7 into 3/9 electricity AND web host outages.  OK now.  TZA strategic, from 2-22, improving.  Equities are closer to more significant and sharp losses.  Just not quite yet...  Today, crosscurrents likely. 

3 - 7  0730: Equity momentum is eroding.  A crisis in confidence comes next.  Today, continued weakness.  Leaving at 1040 for the aft.

3 - 6  0700: With the above Dx's, and enough rope (the Pres), DJT is escalating the global risk & hanging himself.  Today, equity losses.

03/03 0740: Expo T equities all short now.  Bonds/HYG and Gold as well. Today, equity highs early, then falling into the 3/6+ abyss...

03/02 0800: Equity Expo Ts are split long/short, and very likely to all roll short.  Today, gradual equity weakening.  Leaving for the am.

03/01 1000: It's going to become very wild, very quickly.  The Eclipse was on the USA 7th cusp, and fractures

                      allegiances and alliances, even among republicans = legislative void...

0730: To be stopped out and wait.  Expo T equity trend is lower = a 2 day contra-trend rally, to be sold 3/2.

02/28 0740: GDP/PCE neutral.  Today, equity weakness continues. This eve, DJT speaks...DJTransports already short...

02/27 0630: The clock ticks on several global predicaments...  Today, gradual equity weakening continues...  

02/24 0700: The Expo T signals are postted.  This is the week of major reversals.  XIV gave the 1st clue on 2/16...

02/23 0400: I can finalize about 3 Expo T ETFs per day.  5 completed so far and away this am.

02/17 0700: The illusion that DJT policies can ever be funded, much less work, is persistent.  The shore is glistening prior to the arrival of the tidal waves of health system, budget, immigration and foreign policy dysfunction.

2017

4 -13 0700: 4-12 toward the close became ETVF confused, so a late exit.  If positions were held, the open will be favorable.  I am leaving after  the open until ~1300.  This week for equities continues lower.

4 -12 0750: Earnings: new music genre--rock-a-blydownly. Equities irregularly lower into May.  Today, more consistently lower. Bonds higher.

4 -11 0730: Today, equities weakening.  Expo T Bonds (TLT, IEF, LQD) reversed higher 4-10.  Leaving @1040 for the day.

4 -10 0730: The new Expo T chart indicates the equity vulnerability for declines.  This week: lower.  Today, highs early, lower closes.

4 - 7  0740: NFP is typical of sustained US and global economic numbers to follow.  (TAO below zero and falling).  Overnight had equity ups and downs.  Today, entering shorts again...when???...holding into 4/10+.  Not stable, globally.

4 - 6  0730: A pause into 4/7 NFP.  Minor movement.  Waiting.  And leaving @0850 for bridge. back ~1230.  Stops hit at/near open.

4 - 5  0740: Today, an equity rally, weakening toward the close (almost a 4/4 inverse).  Leaving 0930-1200.

4 - 4  0730: Patience, as almost all equity Expo Ts have rolled short.  Over time, the Expos usually speak for themselves...

4 - 3 0800:  Today, equities higher early, then reversing lower. XIV reversing lower.

3 - 31 0750: The "lock them (DJT team) up" process advances. Most equity Expo Ts are near the reversal limit = rally ends today.

3 - 28 0640: Leaving for the funeral soon.  3/28 ended in a TZA buying range.  The caveat: irregular SOMC updates.  Safety first...

3 - 27 0730: Strategic Expo T is in TZA from 2-22, 0830, $17.49, and is locked in this week.  Tactical Expo T was too chaotic to hold 3/24.  From ~ 0900 3/28 to ~1300 3/30, I will be traveling to Florida for a funeral.  Ergo, updates sporadic.  This pm I am back in court for another session of the murder trial (of my wife's younger brother).  Important personally, yes.  The world has bigger problems...Equities: moving into the more active "plunge period" of the decline.  Safety first...

3 - 24 0600: It is critically serious in the US right now.  Critically.  Dangerous globally.  And unpredictable how "Wild Man" will lash out next.   Today, the 1-2 day equity rally ends...

3 - 23 0720: Equity trend lower. 1-2 day rallies occur. We're in one.  As with Buffett sometimes, this am, playing bridge wins...

3 - 22 0730: 3-1 "legislative void".  3-15 "Hindenberg omen alive and well" & is intact.  3-21  The equity plunge ensues.

3 - 21 0700: Churning.  The equity trends remain short.  Leaving today @1040.

3 - 15 0740: Comey and Yellen...  Today, equities higher, then lower.  Hindenberg omen alive and well...

3 - 14 0700: 2061, a benign figure, & the # of years since Julius Caesar's Ides. Et tu, equities and the DJT bloat. Today, lower & lower...

3 - 13 0730: The 2nd rally day, and the end.  Today, equities choppy early, weakening later.  Health care: single payer, no profit off the ill..

2017


DD

5 -10 0720:  Uncertain early, resolving later.  Multiple global crises to emerge into Sep-Oct.  Here and now, first finishing some Expo T revisions, then to enter data for TAO, to extend it through Jan 2018.

5 - 9  0730:  The Expo T values listed above will be changed to Expo T Fast only for: XIV, NYSE, RSP, NASX, VEU, FXE, LQD, GLD and USO.  The intent is to provide greater usefulness.  The Expo T page will post the usual Expo T signals. Today, equity highs early, closing lower.

5 - 5  0740:  NFP = early equity gains.  Expo Ts favor selling.  Ergo, TZA awaits.  Longer term, now entering more serious deflation pressures.

5 - 4  0620:  5-3 wasn't ideal, but close.  Equity rally today.  Maybe selling in the aft.  SPY:GLD still long.

5 - 3  0730:  Post ADP and pre FED, equity weakness and bond strength.  IWM selling is established.  SPY:RSP now to reverse lower. May-Jun equities 5-10% lower; Sep-Oct major lows.

5 - 2  0800:  Today, equity highs early, closing lower, CompQ, QQQ, XLK and HYG included.  Bonds lower early, closing higher.

5 - 1  0730:  Patience, and deja vu all over again.  More later.

4 -28  0740: GDP, et.al., as expected.  Today, equity highs early, then (much?) lower close.  Weekly charts still set to move lower.

4 -27  0730: Oil is stressing equities.  Today, uneventful until the aft..

4 -26  0730: Expo T very, very Fast reversals today (~Brexit, and others). The equity cliff nears...

4 -25  0730: Today, equity highs early, then lower, into 4-28.  XIV Expo T Fast likely to reverse.

4 -24  0730: In the midst of a family crisis, signals were missed; and not found until this am.  Mea Culpa.  Moving on, today's equity highs are most likely to be a one-off, with the lower trend resuming 4/25-26.  VIX, after this am's decimation, rises.

4 -21  0750: The weekly charts have NYA, RSP, IWM, VEU all primed to sell.  So is UUP.  FXE and TLT, IEF, LQD remain on buys.  This is weekly.  Forecast, next week resumes these trends.

4 -20  0700: Gave up gains overnight.  Expo models are now mixed.  An early exit, then waiting again.

4 -19  0730: Equities not quite ready to break lower, yet.  Today, highs early, then weakening.

4 -18  0800: Today, equities negative all day.  The trend resumes...

4 -17  0700: A day of waiting.  More later.

2017


5 - 15:     DJT is too mentally ill to lie well.

6 - 6  0730:  Maybe finally the equity uprooting begins.  Today, plain lower.

6 - 5  0800:  Today, equities choppy early, resolving lower.

6 - 2  0800:  NFP confirms GDP weakness, and the slide into recession.  Into 2018, onset global depression.  For today, re-entering TZA.

6 - 1  1400:  Win some, and give away 5% others...the price of traveling sometimes.  Looks like an equity rally into 6-2, then reassess.

5 -31 0840:  The Hindenberg omen of internal equity weakness and divergence has been alive and well for awhile now.  Sooner or later... As usual, there will be hindsight brilliant analysis of the "why's".  Cycles are cycles--ongoing and repetitive.  Equities are entering a severe, prolonged downdraft.  Leaving for Lake Havasu ~1100.  For today, more might be apparent by then...  Enjoy...

5 -30 0900:  Positions ok, and improving.  Lower equity day, and week.  The persistent descent begins.  Bonds+.  Leaving LA today.

5 -24 0730:  5-23 didn't work.  IWM & NYSE Expo T Fast call for the same: equity highs early, with a lower close.

5 -23 0800:  Equity high early, closing lower.  No intra-day monitoring.

5 -22 0800:  Equities: the highs early, then weakening, Rebound rally ends.  Lower week.  Enjoying the national parks of the SW.

5 -18 0700:  Strategic IWM Expo T in TZA from 4-26, and holding, now likely into June.  Traveling @1100...into the SW for 2wks.

5 -17 0800:  Almost buying TZA & UVXY on the 5-16 close...  Waiting this am for the rebound rally, then look short.

5 -16 0720:  So far, setting up for an irregular day.  Equity bias is mixed.

5 -15 0750:  A repeated equity theme recently: today, equity highs early, then weakening.  Perceived Pence as Pres is ok, for awhile...

5 -12 0630:  Away prior to open until ~1000.  This am, staying short.

DD

7 - 26 0730: ExpO T UUP went long (FXE short) 7-25. That is likely to reverse all other sectors (except GLD) soon (today??).

7 - 25 0740: Today equities peak early, then declining into the FED 7-26, and beyond.

7 - 24 0730: Equity Exponential Momentum--the ExpO Ts--is weakening.  The next phase, acceleration of the decline, is likely this week.

7 - 21 0810: Revised Equity ExpO Ts and USO all reversed short 7-20.  Bonds, FXE and Gold remain long. Enjoy...

7 - 11 0730: Parallel 7/10, but weaker earlier.  USA Reality check soon: Congressional logjams, earnings, indictments,...the totality of the Eclipse.

7 - 10 0800: Equity highs early, into a lower close, and very likely lower week/month, into Oct.  Australian BC's Chris Uhlmann: Yes!

7 -, 7  0740:  A digestion day, with equity weakness later.  Ideally, short into 7/10.  The ExpO trends extend the recent declines.

7 - 6  0750:  Today, equities (much) lower. This Bear will take few prisoners.  Away for bridge until ~1300. 

7 - 5  0750:  Equity highs early, closing lower.  And, Expo T Fast.  It's been 9+mths of work, and "you have potential" is materializing...

7 - 3  0700:  Projecting equity highs by 1100am.  Likely global crisis by the total solar eclipse, Aug 21.

6 - 30 0500:  Away unexpectedly for a funeral all day, out of state.  No statement today.

6 - 29 0730:  Equities remain vulnerable.  As with 6-28: "...decline trend to resume".   LQD to reverse higher soon.

6 - 28 0750:  Stop on open probable.  From 0330, VIX dive.  For now, waiting for the equity decline trend to resume.

6 - 27 0730:  Expo T reversals starting to appear.  Equities: the counter-trend rally is done.  Today, TZA and UVXY likely early, ??hold into 6/28.

6 - 26 0800:  Equities reversed higher during the last 2 weeks.  Today, highs early, then weakening.

6 - 13 through 23:  Aplus hosting issues (non-functional).

6 - 12 0730: Today, lower bias.  6-13, accelerating.  At a critical juncture.  6-14 FED.  This week is full of data impacts.  Redoing Expo T, ETF and  ETVF, probable final version for awhile.  It's taken 8 months to work the Expo Ts this far.  There are infinite variations.  Refinements now work well.

6 - 9  0750:  Today (hints from 6-8), equity highs (minimal) 1st 1-2hrs, then declining, maybe sharply. Bond lows early, then resuming longer rally.

6 - 8  0700:  Of all the am's to play bridge...Buffett and Gates understand...  Comey = a volatile financial markets day, More ~1300 when returning.

6 - 7  0700:  Markets seem to be ok with Pence.  Indictments likely by the Eclipse..


DD  
8 - 29 0800: Today, an equity thrust lower.  A mistake with reversals yesterday.  The equity trend is lower. 

8 - 23 0750: The prior and after effects of this Eclipse...and now for the accelerated equity decline...

8 - 22 0740: Missed the XIV buy.  The Eclipse... Hopefully, you are riding it.  Sometime today is the safe exit.  It might last into 8-23 however...

8 - 18 0700: Equity Bear trend is now set The temptation: buying XIV on the 8/17 close.  Patience and discipline.  Selling rallies.

8 - 17 0800: Equity declines continue.  The Eclipse has been effective: inserting doubt and caution.

8 - 16 0800: Today ends the rally.  Into October, a large global equity decline awaits.

8 - 15 0700: 2nd day of a bear market rally, and nearing overhead.  Most likely, resuming TZA and UVXY tomorrow. 

8 - 14 0700: A rebound rally.  Today, erratic.

8 - 10 0600: Overnight verifies the trend lower for equities, globally.  Trading patterns dynamically change to Bear strategies: 1) selling rallies and now,  2) holding short for a few days+.  Near the open, XIV exiting.  Then, waiting for opportunities.  Away until ~1300.

8 -  8 1100.:  8/8  0700:    7 - 25/26/27 ended the Bull

8 -  4 0735:  XIV, from 10min to wkly, is set for sharp declines = Volatility rising.  Maybe starting today.

8 -  3 0750:  "IT", whatever "it" is, hasn't happened yet.  Patience and discipline.  Avoiding chop.  Then, more patience and discipline.

8 -  1 0730:  Another VIX decline day at the office...  Today, observing TZA.  Rising support is 15.53-15.63.

7 - 31 0730: Today, equity highs early, closing lower.  Significant declines are very likely into Oct.

7 - 28 0800: May have to leave early for the day.  The equity dam is leaking...

7 - 27 0730: Patience and discipline...