Schulz on Market Cycles                                                Richard Schulz



US Bond Charts    5/12/15    US Bonds are in a Bear market from 2/3/15

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TLT  US 20+yr Bonds   Weekly  5/12/15 1100cdt:

     This is a 3yr perspective on US Bonds.  After its global QE fueled rally exhausted Jan 30, TLT began its Bear market descent Feb 2-3, and has since declined in 2 symmetrical waves, with the inner 1.1 Bollinger Bands being the reflection points.

     TLT has now dropped through 16/25/49 moving average supports to the current lower outer 2.2 BB level.   This is most likely to hold, and result in a 3-5 week rally--first to 123-4 (lower inner BB and 49wk ma), then to 127 (16/25 falling ma's).  Bond volatility is going to be enhanced for the next 1-2 years, as Central Banks introduce last gasp maneuvers.   These last 3 weeks have seen the repudiation of negative interest rates.  The market is now forcing the CB hands.

     The temporary US Bond rally will add fuel to equity declines.  Stocks can decline vigorously from current levels.  The rapidly falling TAO 9 favors that price erosion,