Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
Transit Aspect Oscillator A Global (personal) Psychological and Economic Indicator
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 now available: 12/ 08/ 14
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
SOMC Purposes: TAO 9 Transit Aspect Oscillator
1) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
2) Equities: 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience
3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold
4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations
2/12 1230: The lower 2.0 BB remains support, momentum improving, and into 2/16 post-holiday, favorable for extending this equity rally.
2/9 1100: After the 2/5 NFP, first lower, now higher and the larger of the 2 moves. Close to ideal. We have held, and, for additional positions, both Bonds and Gold are primed for significant declines. Equities, Bonds & Gold positions likely to hold 1-2+wks.
2/5 1500: SPXL was in the buy zone, and the last 5min bar favorable.
1400: Today's action is setting up an SPXL buy, likely either on the close or 2/8-9. Long bonds/notes, gold also topping in price.
2/4 1300: The 2/5 NFP is likely to initiate the next stock moves. Bias remains positive for equities, and longer bonds/notes are topping.
2/2 1425: A thank you for this decline, and at temporary support for SPX, especially into 2/3 ADP. So flat into tomorrow.
2/1 1500: Finally in the last 10min there was a notable bearish equity decline. SPXS will likely hold into 2/3 ADP and ideally 2/5 NFP.
0930: Risk increased, and mixed probabilities.
1/29 1400: SPXS is at 1.0 BB support, marginal and tenuous, but support. Into next week, oil likely lower, and 2/5 US NFP. If VIX starts to rally in the last 5-10 min of trading, and USO continues to slide, the probabilities of SPXS profit improve. Over the weekend, an SPY chart.
1/28 0730: This week the technicals have been improving, especially overnight. The TAO 10 is in progress, with some important modifications. The flash drive project is moving forward. TAO 10 hint: the Oct 15/Jan 16 lows may be just that, the lows for awhile.
1/27 1130: Letting the post-FED dust settle. Bias is still long equities.
1/26 0850: The buying zone, 3% risk, 10+% potential.
1/25 0700: TQQQ did rally to the 88-90 target. Equities closed 1/22 at the144min BB 1.0BB upper band. Today likely closes lower, into 1/26, to set up the projected 5+% (SPX) rally. A complex bottom seems to be forming in equities, with bonds and vix weakening.
1/20 1410: Technically improving and likely to break up. Q is the strongest, with a probable rally into/thru 1/22. TQQQ is a hold. A QQQ chart is due for 1/21 or 1/22. Q momentum is more favorable, with moving averages turning. TQQQ rising to 88-90, to start.
0800: 2 island failures only happen in Bear markets. Into the afternoon, TQQQ is a likely hold.
1/19 1430: Staying in TQQQ. The buy (exhaustion) island is setting up favorably. 1/20 likely to continue higher highs/lows.
0800: Status quo. As the decline was sharp and extended, so may be this rally. Projecting a 50+% retracement.
1/15 0730: Equities will open again at/near basic support levels. Choppiness was ditto at the Sep/Oct bottom. For now, giving TQQQ time, and TQQQ will open much closer to its 80.00 fundamental support price.
1/14 1510: Website/Internet difficulties all day, just resolved, for now. The TQQQ stop was cancelled, and the buy held and strengthened.
0730: The TQQQ buy is probably a major contra-trend signal, looking for a QQQ retracement of 4-7%, into next week. In parallel, USO to rally, and both GLD and TLT to decline in price. The set-up is very similar to the Sep/Oct decline and subsequent rise.
1/12 0730: The limit exit of 74.98 is caution with a counter-trend position. The caveat: SPXL is setting up to rally further.
1/11 1030: Higher intraday high/low over 1/11, and after the 5+% decline, both a positive chart pattern and momentum. More later.
1/8 0740: NFP added to futures gains. 75% carry through into 1/11. Limit exit SPXL 73.64, however = likely flat for the weekend.
1/7 1530: A stable last 2 1/2 hrs, with a brief (2-3 day) oversold condition almost reached. Intraday momentum is close to reversing.
0500: The technical models that were effective for 2014-5 no longer are. The global equity markets have now entered the middle phase of Bear/Decline/Crash mode. The charts above are correct. The 1/4/16 note is correct. The 1/5 & 1/6 notes are not, nor is the currently posted SPXL position. So, SPXL exits on the open, with no new position, for awhile. Time to reflect, meditate, pray and reassess prior to re-entry. For investments, it is a time to be very cautious. This week is an enhanced continuation of major, global financial crises.
1/6 1410: Same theme. Now not a typical island, but still indicates a probable rally, target lowered to 81-82.00. TQQQ also ok.
1/5 1130: The set up is an island buy, for 2-3 days. Risk 1.7%, Reward 5+%, target 83.00. Q1 recession, likely.
1/4/16 1100: Looking for a probable 2 day partial retracement, then further equity selling to resume.
0600: Just maybe transiting planetary aspects (TAO) do relate with mundane human affairs. And maybe 3 white swans make a black: Saudi Arabia/Iran, China, Puerto Rico... Global equities are collapsing this am. Breakaway gap = just the beginning of the plunge.
ETFs: Some Liquid and favored US Equity, US Bond, US Gold, US Oil:
Long = Buy: SPY,SSO,SPXL,QQQ,TQQQ,IWM,TNA,TLT,TMF,GLD,NUGT,UWTI Profits on Rising prices
Short = Buy: SH,SDS,SPXS,PSQ,SQQQ,RWM,TZA,TBF,TMV,DZZ,DUST,DWTI Profits on Falling prices
8/29: Weekly/Monthly: Global Equity BEAR. US/GE Bonds: ok. Gold is currency dependent. Currencies are at the fickle whim of local CBs. Oil in oversupply. Maintaining a relatively simple, disciplined investing
strategy, over time, favors positive results.
TAO 9 : Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 9
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.
ETF Position: 2/12 1230cst: Technicals and Astro. Rebound equity rally within a global Bear market
Current Buy Date Time Price Stop Sell Date Price %
TQQQ 2/11 1341 69.62 71.64
SPXL 2/08 1400 59.02 2/11 0930 58.43 - 1.0
From July 21,2015 %+/-- # #+ #- %+ %-- Pts+ Pts- Ave+ Ave-
EQUITY ETFs 89.0 37 25 12 67 33 117.9 -28.9 4.7 -2.4
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below
SPX Monthly 11/12/15 1100:
This chart is prescient for 6-8mths, into mid-2016. The last monthly 2011 budget correction didn't penetrate the lower 2.0 BB. The latest Aug/Sep 2015 did. And the rebound failed at the upper, inner 1.0BB. And no new monthly highs for 9mth and counting. The 16/36/12 MACD crossed last in mid-2009, and now Aug 2015. The CCI is holding below 100. SPX is beginning its major 20-40+% decline. 5 waves. SP 1350 eventually, into a late summer panic buy. Then, irregularly higher, into 2019. Then a sell.
Transit Aspect Oscillator TAO 9: 1/3/2006--12/31/2015.
The SP 500 is black, left scale, with the recent Aug/Sep correction notable, upper right. The TAO 9, red, right scale, with Zero mid-scale. As the TAO 9 declined sharply through Zero, there was the Global equity drop. The TAO 9 last sustained below zero values mid-2007--late 2011. The continuous very low (-5000 to -8000) TAO 9 (and TAO 8) readings reflect Global pessimism, suffering and economic contraction. From 1900 up to the present, every time the TAO 9 has dropped to and/or sustained the current negative readings there has been a significant economic decline. The statistical significance is greater than 1:10,000 against chance. Therefore, it is likely 2015-16, the global recession evolves further.
This TAO 9 descent does not seem dramatic, nor especially significant. However, historically, over the last 115 years, It Is. Recently, there were similar TAO 9 drops 1973-75 (oil shock), 1980-83 (ending of stagflation, high interest rates), and 1987-1993 (US equity, Jap equity/housing/asset crashes). Then, the Transit Aspect Oscillator made a record sustained 6 year rally, 1995-2000 (dot com and other bubbles), declining sharply 2001-03 (9/11, recession). Rose into 2007 and stalled (showing the futility of Bernacke discounts).
The global economy (misery) persisted 2008-2011. 2014 ended the global CB QE ramps as per 2015 TAO 9 and 2014 TAO 8 graphs.
TAO 9 2/12cst 1230 note, equity trend likely higher
1/28/16: TAO 10 nearing completion, with significant additions and modifications
1/5/16: Q1 RECESSION Likely. The TAO forecast global equity/asset plummet enters a more serious phase. Transit Aspect Oscillator: an astro scientific index. Transit aspects as they affect global psychology, mundane events, and economics. There is a Global financial/political traumatic restructuring in progress. Global assets peaked 2014-15. Global GDPs decelerating. Deflation dominant. US/GE Bonds stable.
1/5/16: Into 2016, TAO 9 remains at/near decade lows, indicating asset implosions. CB's efforts are now failing. Global recessions (yes, USA too), bankruptcies and political/mundane instability forefront into mid 2016.
Charts: 02/09 1500: New SPX daily. 2006-2015 TAO 9 below charts.
SPX Daily 02/09/16 1500 Close.
Param's: sma's 12&16, ema 64, BB's 16,1.0, 25, 2.0.
After the Jan decline, globally, this chart is an early breath of Spring: bullish. While 2/8 may not have been THE local bottom, along with 2/9, it is tradable, and maybe sustainable for longer than 2 wks. MACD: higher lows, 2.0 BB support, and the 2/8-9 price lows higher than the 1/20 SPX 1812 low. The 11/12 monthly is still intact, and bear market rallies are the sharpest. For now, 1890 small &1920 medium resistance. Then, 1970 ???...