CYCLES: ETF Trading: Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, Gold, Oil
NYSE NYSE (Hr) NASX VEU TLT FXE GLD USO
These 8 = balanced breadth of investment vehicles.
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
Transit Aspect Oscillator A Global (personal) Psychological and Economic Indicator
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 available:
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
SOMC Purposes: 10/21/16
1) Explore the EMA Oscillators across bi-daily and hourly data, and 5+ diverse ETF sectors
2) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold
4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations
5) Utilize 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience
4 - 17 0600: Risk-on currencies are topping. FED tightening. Increased risk for all hard assets: equities, real estate, metals, et.al..
4 - 6 0700: Bear market rallies usually are < 3 days, then another leg lower. This am is typical.
2 - 28 1500: VIX Trades not suitable for this site. Refer to VIX page.
2 - 19: Currencies aligning for a higher USD into 2-20 = equity weakness.
2 - 14: Evolving dual Bears of stocks and bonds. Into 2020+, also hard assets...
2 - 9 1100: All VIX ETFs are suspect, at present. This site will no longer trade them, indefinitely.
2 - 8: Ending the equity rally...
2 - 6 0600: Equities, a 2 day rally (sharp?)
2 - 5: Turning into a continuation. 2 - 2 1400: Bona fide crash possible 2-5.
2 - 1: Global Stock Bear is beginning. USD Bull. Hard asset Bear. 20+y Bond irregular.(1-4wk cycles).
1 - 30 0700: The eventual 2020-2022+ Depression seems like a vacuous vapor at present It is on the horizon, however.
1 - 26: USD usually requires 2+ weeks to form its base.
01 - 10 0500: All ExpO equities went short 1-9 @1430. 1-9 A turn day to remember. Both Global Stocks and Bonds very vulnerable.
01 - 09 0800: ExpO Euro is now short, USD long. Equities are more vulnerable; likely to reverse short this week.
TAO 9 : Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPMC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 9
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below
ASTRO TAO 4 -7 1 - 25 chart update. Transiting Planetary Effects as related to the NYSE, and Global Equities and Assets.
THE ASTRO TAO (RED) 5-16-16 to 6-6-17, with the NYSE (BLACK) and Astro Sub Indexes. TAO is an objective Transit Aspect Oscillator, and is ending a 7 month rise. TAO is primarily Global Psychological Index.TAO >Zero & Rising = optimism. TAO <Zero & Falling = pessimism and asset devaluation. From early March, TAO goes below zero = pessimism and negative events dominate = equities/assets sustain declines.
This TAO model was created in 1985, modified in 2016, and has a positive, 1:10,000 (p < 0.0001), n = 12,064, Pearson correlation,
TAO with DJIA, 1900 - present. TAO is 100% objective: numbers in = planetary angular separations, then Sine formula, = TAO oscillator out.
01/23/17: The W.H.O. ICD-10 Dx Manual: The US Pres = 5 major Personality disorders: 1) Narcissistic, 2) Histrionic,
3) Emotionally Unstable, 4) Paranoid and 5) Dissocial 6) Impulsive = DJT is a global risk. "Wild Child" "Con Don".
DJT's Dx's are entrenched for life. For DJT, all "perceived" threats become "real", and are attacked. Early dementia probable.
postings are usually >=20min delayed Away Mon pm and Thurs am for bridge
Tactical Trading (very short term) ExpO X & XX models (time frame minutes to days)
S = Support R = Resistance B = Breakout r=rising f=falling
4 - 23 1130cdt...improving & bridge til close. S=10.81 R=11.05, then ~11.30
Buy Date Time Price Stop Sell Date Time Price % Model
In TZA 04/19 0935 10.55L 10.78 E XX
Exit FAZ 04/17 1130 11.00 04/19 0905 11.12 E XX
Exit TZA 04/16 1415 10.94 04/17 0830 10.81 - 1.2 E XX
Exit TZA 04/13 1120 11.17 04/16 1145 11.02 - 1.4 E XX
Exit TZA 04/12 1425 11.00L . 04/13 1100 11.23 2.1 E XX
Exit TZA 04/10 1430 11.33 04/12 1350 11.08 - 2.2 E XX
L =limit s = stop Tactical primarily uses: ETF = Expo T Fast ETVF = Expo T Very Fast
(Volatility: Only on VIX Trades & Hx)
ExpO T Tactical Stats
Net%+/-- # #+ #- W% L% Sum+ Sum- Ave%+ Ave%-
2018 TACTICAL 141.1 75 53 22 70 30 156.2 - 15.1 3.0 - 0.7
2017 TACTICAL 174.8 149 81 68 54 46 218.7 - 43.9 2.7 - 0.6
4 - 23 cdt... new charts ETF Trading ExpO Z Charts
ExpO Exponential Oscillator Trends: Tactical Trading (holding Hours/Days)
Charts 4-20 close: NYSE (Bi-daily & Hourly) NASX, VEU, TLT, FXE, GLD, USO (Bi-daily) ExpO Z Oscillators
Astro TAO monthly 1900-2020 >10,000 PPM Correlation with stock prices (by May)
TAO Transit Aspect Oscillators: Astro scientific indexes. Transit aspects as they affect global status.
Early October: the protective Jupiter/Saturn sextile ends. Negative effect through March 2023.
4-22: 1800: This Week: Long: USD, Bonds, Volatility. Short: Equities, Euro, Gold, Oil (new charts 4/23)
8 -24-17: Eclipse, lingering negative astro effects, destabilizing, and DJT unraveling (Eclipse on his Ascendant)
NYSE Hourly & ExpO Z. 9/26/16 to 04/20/18 close
Price Trend short.
ExpO Z <200, bias short, ending 2nd wave higher..
This week: NYSE re-trends short.
NYSE Bi-daily & ExpO Z. Exponential Oscillator, zeroed 9/26/16 to 04/20/18 close
This is the chart if price remains the same until 4/27.
Price Trend short.
ExpO Z flat, bias short, double topping.
This week: NYSE resuming trend short.
NASX Bi-Daily 9/26/16 to 4/20/18
NASX Trend short.
ExpO Z weak <100, ending 2nd wave higher.
This week: NASX lower.
VEU Bi-Daily 9/26/18 to 4/20/18
Price Trend short.
ExpO Z weak <100, ending 2nd wave higher.
This week: VEU resuming lower.
USO Bi-Daily 9/26/16 to 4/20/18
Price Trend long.
ExpO Z ending 5 waves higher, reversing short.
This week: USO lower
FXE Bi-Daily 9/26/16 to 4/20/18
Price Trend short.
ExpO Z flat,<100, bias short.
This week: FXE lower.
GLD Bi-Daily 9/26/18 to 4/20/18
Price Trend flat.
ExpO Z flat, bias short.
This week: GLD lower.
TLT Bi-Daily 9/26/16 to 4/20/18
Price Trend mixed.
ExpO Z trendless..
This week: TLT flat to higher (yearly complex bottom?).
Preface to Exponential Oscillator Charts
Daily charts use bi-daily data. Hourly use ct 0830, 0930, 1030, 1130, 1230, 1330, 1430, 1455.
98+% of ExpO C values range between +/- 500.
The zero line identifies trends, and trends continue until a reversal ~+/- 100 is sustained. When ExpO C exceeds ~+/- 200 then another guideline is to use the average of the previous 2 pivots for a reversal value.
ExpO C >< +/- 300 are extreme values and short term reversals are expected.