Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 now available: 12/ 08/ 14
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
ETF RESULTS: Net Investing Stats From Initiation: July 1, 2014
ETFs %+/-- # #+ #- %+ %-- Pts+ Pts- Ave+ Ave-
EQUITIES 112.5% 41 31 10 75 25 184.9 -18.4 5.9% -1.8%
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
1) Bull/ Bear market positive earnings: Equities, Bonds and Gold (USD based)
2) TAO 8 research: scientific astrocyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
3) Submit Weekly Charts and Analysis: Stocks, Bonds and Gold
4) Research statistically other Numerical and Planetary cycles
4/21 0700: Today is relatively simple. $SPX needs to stabilize this am, then decline. If not, an exit at a loss. The probability is not favorable.
4/20 0700: PBOC effects for today into 4/21. Then, the equity technicals are likely to induce another push lower. SPXS probably holds today.
4/17 0700: Equities are likely to sustain the initial move lower, with gold pushing higher. US Bonds are marginal and problematic. May be an exit.
4/16 0700: The limits held on the higher equity push 4/15. Overnight favorable for SPXS. Both the long US Bonds and Gold are improving. All 3 of these are likely now to hold into next week. Momentum is supportive for all, and the short term ma's are turning one by one.
4/15 1000: Gold is in the buying range, after consolidating. Higher daily highs and positive momentum and short term ma's.
0700: 4/14 reversed after a lower open. CB's still in control. For now, another day of patience. Probabilities now back to 50/50.
4/14 0700: 4/13 had steady weakness. US bonds bought, and overnight, both equities and bonds favorable. Momentum continues to weaken. Now 4/5 trade probability. The short term ma's are rolling over, 4/13 into today. Patience, care and discipline right now.
4/13 0700: Overnight, SP futures have now added another confidence level to the SPXS trade. Probability improved to 3/4, and risk reduced.
4/10 1300: Short term momentum is turning negative for $SPX. Risk moderate. Probability about 2/3. Next week indexes likely weakening.
0700: Another SPXS trade is still possible, though not likely. Even though futures are higher now, the SP close is most likely lower.
4/9 1100: An early higher high, followed by a higher low. Risk increased, and SPY support held again. Exiting all equity and bond positions.
0700: SPX held short term support 4/8; however, momentum weakened, and the ma's (both 144min and daily) are starting to break lower. Today, into 4/10, and Monday, the positions of SPXS, SQQQ, and UVXY remain intact. TMF is holding from 4/7. Looking to buy gold, maybe today.
4/8 0700: 4/7 was dynamic. There remains one more layer of immediate equity support. By week end, clarity of trend is likely to emerge.
4/7 1130: The risk is contained by the 3/23 18.23 low, and the lower daily 1.1 BB (18.67). A negative SP close is about 50/50. (SQQQ, UVXY ok).
0700: Stopped out. The broader SPX and NASX trends are still lower. Today is most likely to cap the upside. Another SPXS trade possible.
4/6 0700: The equity daily and intra-day trends are lower. US Bonds (10-20+yrs) are most likely to peak soon, but produce a very long (several weeks to months) choppy top. Gold may have already entered a bull market (protracted USD high level irregularity). The SPY/GLD ratio reversed lower 3/18, and has further to go. On the road today. Enjoy.
4/3 0740: A weak US jobs report. SPXS (and SQQQ) improving via futures. When the SP futures chart is posted 4/3 or 4/4), there will be more commentary; this jobs report has longer term implications. For now, a near term weaker USD will likely benefit US Bonds and Gold.
4/2 1330: With NASX being relatively weak during the week, and pre-holiday & post-Iran trading almost over, the risk is lowered. Chart tomorrow.
0330: Monday, short-covering, and after 2 anemic equity days, more bearish, for the longer term. Until proven differently, the trend is lower.
4/1 0730: ADP was weaker, as were equities. 3/31 Bonds went flat. The models are mixed. 4/2 I'll be on the road. So, today, a trade unlikely.
3/31 0700: The near-term erratic equity activity is a positive. The chop leads toward trend. Today, observing. 4/1, the ADP #, and more direction.
3/30 0700: The Central Banks, PBOC easing. Most major US indexes have overhead about 1% higher. Then, re-assessment. The VIX is a major key to observe how the major money is moving. Over the next 2 days, VIX will retest its recent (local) lows. Gold might exit (PBOC eases, stronger USD).
3/27 0h700: Short term, conflicting indications. Awaiting developments.
3/26 0700: The SP/Gold ratio has probably reversed lower as well. US Bonds to sell soon. Today, all of the big 4 (NY, SP, Q, R2) are in different phases of a decline. The TAO 9 is reflecting eroding confidence. Technically, today may produce an equity and vix exit, short term only. Longer, stocks lower.
3/25 1200: The 3/20 1030 entry positions of SPXS $18.38, SQQQ $24.54, and UVXY $14.47 all held this am. IWM produced an island sell early (0840) and never looked back. From this time,only SPXS will be tracked. It is now more likely that a trend reversal has happened to the short side.
0700: An early exit likely today. SPX fell to short term support 3/24, and stalled. The probabilities aren't high now either way.
3/24 0700: Overnight, mixed. Equities, technically, short term momentum is now negative, supporting the SPXS position. On 3/20, there were also SQQQ and UVXY notes, and those are improving as well. Higher bond prices/momentum are adding fuel to any equity decline.
3/23 0700: 3/20 equities weakened into the close. Overnight, generally favorable. Still tight stops, as the uncertainties resolve.
3/20 1030: It is an unusual island/BB occurrence, including the Q and VIX (SQQQ and UVXY are worth a try). Tight stops.
0700: The set-up didn't occur 3/19, so no trade. The TAO 9 has inversely correlated so far this year. It is pushing to new yearly lows while many global equity indexes are at/near record highs. Technically, the SP can still sell, and today remains a possibility. The VIX can also buy.
3/19 0700: 3/18 was weaker then stronger, ending with the bull thrust, and further gains likely to be muted. All ma models are bullish. R2000 exceded the upper 2.2 BB, and SP500 is limited by its inner upper BB. MACDs suggest a short term max for both. SPXS trade likely; UVXY has potential.
3/18 1340: Central Banks remain in control. All CB's are easing or now, US, slow to raise rates.
The Equity ETFs: primarily
SPXL = SP500 Long, x3, PROFITS FROM RISING Prices.
SPXS = SP500 Short, x3, PROFITS FROM DECLINING Prices.
The TAO 9 is now declining into the zone where social/political/economic upheavals will occur this time, akin to late 29-32-35 (US,Europe),
late 87-90 (US, Japan), late 00-03 (US, Global), late 07-10 (US,Global), and late14-16 (GLOBAL). The Unraveling will be widespread.
An Investor can benefit from Equity and US Bond moves through long and inverse ETFs. Maintaining a relatively simple, disciplined investing strategy, over time, favors positive results. A key is identifying the local trend technically, using the ETFs with stops, and repeating the process.
HOME of the TAO 9: 4/ 21 0700cdt
Equity ETFs, US Bonds, Cycles (Numeric and Astronomic)
Equities: Short (4/10). The Bear has likely started, irregularly, with 20+% declines into 2016.
US Bonds: Long (4/13). The 2015 Bear likely began 2/3/15. Rallies with equity weakness.
US Gold: Long (4/15). Will be volatile, as currencies destabilize. By fall 2015, bull.
The TAO 9 astro index identifies now increasing pessimism.This has coincided with equity declines.
The graphs highlight the correlations. 80-82, 87-90, 01-03, 07-09: TAO 9 indicates similarities.
12/ 8: TAO 9 Graphs, 3 Page Analysis, and 2015 Financial Forecast, now available.
Charts: 4/ 4 0400 New Chart SPY 144 min, selling intensifies
Daily Commentary below trades/results
2/23/15: A major research, publishing commitment is requiring a major part of my time for 2+mths.
Equities will be the main focus here. The overview remains the same: equities are vulnerable.
TAO 8 : Brief summary and Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlates positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 8 is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of the specific planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 8
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 8 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
8 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 8
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The emerging equity season will favor falling leaves, and the selling of rallies.
Current status: 4/ 21 0700cdt: (Also refer to Equity/Gold/Bond Trading Hx)
ETF Current Buy Date Price Stop Sell Date Price
Equities Short SPXS 4/10 1300 18.47 18.04
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Technical Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below