Schulz  on  Market  Cycles                        Richard  Schulz


Disclaimer:

SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability.  Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions.  SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice.  It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance.  Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance.  No return of capital is implied or guaranteed.  There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions.  No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here.  Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument.   All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz.  The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright.  The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.

TAO 8 Applications:

       To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 8 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO 8 and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
The three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable predictive value  relative to global stock prices.  The creation of the TAO oscillators has been a 25+ year project.   
    The rise and fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the TAO 8 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate, manifesting in stock market declines.  When the TAO 8 is above zero and rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic  statistically with rising stock market prices.  
     SOMC combines the TAO 8's intrinsic value with 25+ years of  technical market analysis and developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the stock and commodity markets effectively.
      The graph of the aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown.  This graph (not shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the nature of aspects. The TAO 8, however, is strictly astronomical and mathematical.  SOMC uses both the TAO 8 and relatively simple mechanical models to time and trade  intermediate and long term.

.....

CONTACT:   richardschulz12@yahoo.com             

Richard Frank Schulz 

07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA 
Bachelor of Science, 1978         

Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987

TAO 8 now available:  3/ 23/ 14


1)  TAO 8 1980-2014 and 1997-2014 graphs with a 2 page explanation

      $25.00    PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)


2)  Subcription:   3/23 Not available  ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)

     a) The above hard copies of the TAO 8 graphs and explanation

     b) Revisions emailed if/when they occur

     c) Real-time trading positions and alerts, emailed

     d) Weekly commentary and positions on SP 500

   



 www.PayPal.com   richardschulz12@yahoo.com

ETF  RESULTS:                       %+/--         #    #+   #--    %+  %--    Ave+    Ave--              
        Russell 2000  ETFs:         21.3%        7    7     0     100    0      3.0%    0.0%  From Jul 2014
            
        Bond             ETFs:          10.4%       2    2     0     100    0      5.2%    0.0%  From Jan 2014
        Gold              ETFs:           3.0%        1    1     0     100    0      3.0%    0.0%  From Jun 2014
        Volatility        ETFs:          11.0%        1    1     0     100    0     11.0%   0.0%  From Aug 2014
.....

Richard Schulz
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL   61108-7503

815-398-5093

 


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SOMC  is an Affiliate with: http://www.markettiming.nl/en/market-timing-digest.com

     Market Timing Digest features many of the most widely recognized astro, cyclical, and technical market timers in the world.   

     I submit my monthly comments to MTD as a service.  It is a privilege to participate.

SOMC Purposes:

1) Bull/ Bear market positive earnings: Equities, Bonds and Gold (USD based)

2) TAO 8 research: scientific astrocyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications

3) Submit Weekly Charts and Analysis: Stocks, Bonds and Gold

4) Research statistically other Numerical and Planetary cycles

...9/22  0800:  Friday was progress, except for GLD.  Today equities irregularly lower, bonds and uvxy higher, and gold flattening, ideally.

9/ 19 0800: Today, it is necessary for a lower equity close for R2.  Otherwise, there is a model failure, and a time-out.

9/ 18 0700:  After the FED, a sharp trio of moves, ending adversely. After a higher equity open, lower later is projected, with TLT, GLD and UVXY higher.

9/ 17 1000: UVXY went into the buy zone, stabilized for 2hrs, and is a buy into the FED. 6% stop, although unprotected it's an 80% probable trade. 

9/ 17 0800:  The FED today, Scotland tomorrow along with assorted econ data.  R2 within parameters; Bonds and Gold ideally basing, for awhile.

9/ 16 0800:  FED or not, equities have finished the first phase of weakening = momentum erosion, and VIX rising.  Bonds are preliminary Buy.

9/ 14 2000:  The forecast equity decline has begun with 80+% reliability now.  1st wave lower Sep-Oct for R2 8+%; a crash now a possibility, meaning a sequence of economic dislocations/defaults threatening market(s) liquidity--central banks being overwhelmed with few (no) viable tools left.  The global lows in interest rates have now probably been seen.  The bond bear market will have reprieves from falling equities, but won't last. Commodities to continue bearish (in strong currency countries (US/GER/UK) from weakening demand.  The US FED now looms large for 3 days.

9/ 11 0600:  After 2 trading days, there is irregular progress.  The negative equity turn has likely begun.

9/ 5 0530:  R2 futures momentum improved 9/4 and overnight.  This current turn is now 60+% likely to be the start of a major equity trend lower.

9/ 3 0600:  Out of traveling necessity will remain in TZA today.  Stop lowered accordingly, risking a relatively large loss.  Not usual.

9/ 2 1700: Internet access limited all day--a long vacation trip.  In retrospect, a marginal day.  Equities must close lower tomorrow.

8/ 26  1000:  uvxy, the x2 vix etf, gave a preliminary 10m buy at 23.54.

7/ 29  0800: TAO 8 now rapidly declining into end 2014.   It is still at a very positive level, however, favoring periodic renewed bursts of optimism (rallies).

7/ 12:   2014 is both a 7 and a 4 year, and 2nd of a Pres Election cycle.  These suggest a lower bias. This is usually, at minimum, a correction cycle.  At maximum, it is a Trend Reversal, from extended Bull to Bear.  The above equity, bond and gold models usually start with the 196m signal, and progress through daily into weekly, as a new trend evolves.  Mars has been active as a trigger for recent global events.  

....


.....R2 is the Russell 2000, the below are liquid ETFs

 IWM  = R2 Long,  x1,   UWM = R2 Long, 2x,   TNA = R2 Long,  3x    PROFITS FROM RISING SMALL CAPS.

 RWM = R2 Short, x1,   TWM = R2 Short, 2x,   TZA = R2 Short, 3x    PROFITS FROM DECLINING SMALL CAPS.

    8/ 5:   Given the current economic environment, and the high probability of severe dislocations soon, 3 time frames of R2 models will now be used. The TAO 8 is now declining into the zone where social/political/economic upheavals will occur this time, akin to 29-32-35 (US,Europe), 87-90 (US,  Japan), 00-03 (US, Global), 07-10 (US,Global), and 14-16 (GLOBAL).  The Unraveling will be widespread.  Benefit through using the Inverse ETFs. Maintaining a simple, disciplined, timing strategy, over time, favors positive results.

HOME of the TAO 8:     9/ 22  0800cdt   

      TAO/astro weather:  TAO 8 remains at high optimism levels (elevated consumer sentiment), but is now rapidly declining through end 2014--now, the glass becoming "half empty" phase.  9/19:  Mars/Jupiter trine (negative correlation) and Mars/Saturn 45, both adverse for another 2 weeks.  9/10 "Extreme" solar event: storm arrived 9/11-15. The storm added 2 "wars":  Ebola and ISIS, among others.

     (The trading updates are usually posted within 3 hrs of a new position).       

     9/ 21  1300: IWM Daily chart posted

                              

     1)  100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Technical Aspect Oscillator

     2)  A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:100,000 significance

         a) TAO 8 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability

         b) TAO 8 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability

     3)  Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions


TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below                          Site revision in progress

YES


TAO 8 :   Brief summary and Graph


    The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 12/31/2013 PPRC is p < .000001, >1:1,000,000 against chance.    

          Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500:   n=3538,   r=+0.66, p < .000001, which means that the TAO 8 correlates positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:100,000 against chance.  This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown.  As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001.  Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results.  That is for future generations.

    TAO 8 is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:

1)  An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair

2)  The selection of the specific planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations

3)  Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and uniquely astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 8

4)  Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators

 

     The TAO 8 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life.  The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures.   The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.

     As TAO 8 rises, Global Psychology rises and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:100,000 against chance).  When the TAO 8 falls, Global Psychology decline, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.

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TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014    Vertical is yearly/quarterly.

                TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange.  SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.

8/ 11/ 14:   The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought.  The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness.  And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability.  The emerging equity season will favor falling leaves, and the selling of rallies.



Current positions (cdt):  9/ 22  0800cdt:    

...All positions are buys, either of a long or inverse ETF.   Results: from 7/1/14.

                                                                                                Trade     2014

Date   Time   ETF     Price     Stop                    Model    Wt.     %+/-      % +/-

8/ 25  1130:  TZA      14.41   13.93                   169m     1/3       0.0      +21.3

7/ 9    1500:  TWM    44.24   42.64                      Dy       1/3

7/ 14  1500:  RWM    16.38   15.81                      Wk      1/3

   

Not in the portfolio but tracked are US Bonds, Gold and periodically, the VIX, via SVXY and UVXY

Bonds                       Buy        Stop   Model     Gold                          Buy       Stop     Model       Volatility                      Buy       Stop      Model

9/ 16  1500: TLT  113.55  113.64  Dy       9/ 16  1000: GLD 118.57  116.09 169m      9/ 17 1000: UVXY  23.82  22.64   169m