Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
Transit Aspect Oscillator A Global (personal) Psychological and Economic Indicator
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 now available: 12/ 08/ 14
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
SOMC Purposes: TAO 9 Transit Aspect Oscillator
1) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
2) Equities: 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience
3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold
4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations
11/17 1320: As usual, we may be early. Downside risk is huge. Upside minimal. Q = a major sell island, 10/23-11/11 = The End.
11/16 1100: SPX 2060-80 is the near term upside target range, limited usually to a 2-3 rally, within this major leg lower.
11/14 1800: 9/11 began an era. 11/14 is extending and escalating. The astro cycles have 3 primary waves--now into 2025.
11/13 1300: To paraphrase the 2015 Forecast: "Contrary to all other "5" years, 2015 will end negative for equities." That remains to be seen, but is becoming more likely, both technically and per TAO 9 plunge. Optimism, into pessimism, into fear/panic. The current astro TAO 9 cycle has significant historical reliability. Over the next week, I aim to graph on this page the 2006-2015 TAO 9, with relatively high quality.
11/11 1330: The temporarily exit was looking for 2 days of weak rally. Bingo. Set up now for a large decline. More 11/12, and SPX chart.
11/09 1000: Returning after a hospitalization = ok. My apologies. A new SPX chart will post 11/9-10. SPXS remains on board. Equities/hard assets are vulnerable from now into mid-2016. Aug/Sep was a foretaste, and did technical damage. The FED (global CBs) will finish it.
10/30 1300: Finally, after a month, VIX. My premature mistake. Draghi,ECB desperation rally. Sometimes some fundamentals intervene, for awhile.... This is a modified Oct 2007, one month deferred. It will not be until mid-2016 when a global currency restructuring occurs = CB's to the rescue. Astro relative to the financial markets is only on the periphery. Astro applies to all people, all the time. When affected by hunger or safety, what do stocks matter? 60+% of humans. The Aug freefall was CB arrested, and until now sits in jail. Until now... Astro, longer term, has merit. And so does TVIX.
10/27 1300: 1) SDS is still a buy. 2) Through Nov, "an event" is likely to occur. 3) QQQ is now in a major sell island, 90+% confidence. So going into the 10/28 FED decision, there is emerging weakness. New highs by year end...not going to happen. New lows, maybe+...
10/23 0800: SPX on the open around 2070. Near the upper BB. A safe level to sell from. SDS holding.
10/22 0800: The ECB/Draghi higher US opening 1/2hr can be sold. More when the 10/22 SPX chart is posted.
10/21 1400: When I post the SPX chart there will be further analysis. For now, this is a relatively low risk entry for a longer hold short position, ideally well into next month and/or beyond. SPX earlier rose to the level where it fell apart in Aug, and upside momentum is now rolling over.
10/16 1000: There will be charts posted as they become timely: extremes reached and/or trend change likely. The current equity rally has only 1-2% left...one last little gap to close, maybe, before international and political events provoke a more fearful downturn.
10/14 0630: It is likely that after today I will only occasionally post on this site. My apologies for any inconvenience. While SOMC tends to provide a beneficial service, it is now no longer best for all involved to continue. My astro/cycles work and publishing will proceed. To do so, I will focus on cycles and writing almost exclusively. Wishing everyone who has participated the best. Richard
8/15 1300: ETFs, as outlined from 2006, make possible gains during disasters. For everyone. Into Jul/Aug 2016, BUY short US equity ETFs. You can do this. For myself, 30yrs experience helps. I've been through similar. The global economic dam has been leaking for several years, exacerbated by the CBs. It's simple now. All hard assets are deflating. Deflation is dominate, contrary to CBs Max inflationary policies. Contrast, Inflation Is out of control in weak currency countries. US strongest, GB/GE/Nor next.
8/14 0740: Bull has turned to Bear in China and EMs. Corrections, to varying %s, are occurring in other global equity markets. For the US, the SPX/NY/NSX/DJI/R2 are lower by 2/3/4/4/7%, respectively, from their highs. The most likely scenario from today is an irregular equity rally into end Aug.. The caveat: a sharp decline is imminent. There is no historic parallel to current economic times. Globally low or negative interest rates, record debt, slowing growth, and deflationary pressures. The global economy is contracting under these weights. The final demise has begun. Between now and end Aug there may not be any significant rally. My work indicates a rally is most likely, not certain. New chart soon.
ETFs: Some Liquid and favored US Equity, US Bond, US Gold, US Oil:
Long = Buy: SPY,SSO,SPXL,QQQ,TQQQ,IWM,TNA,TLT,TMF,GLD,NUGT,UWTI Profits on Rising prices
Short = Buy: SH,SDS,SPXS,PSQ,SQQQ,RWM,TZA,TBF,TMV,DZZ,DUST,DWTI Profits on Falling prices
8/29: Weekly/Monthly: Global Equity BEAR. US/GE Bonds: ok. Gold is currency dependent. Currencies are at the fickle whim of local CBs. Oil in oversupply. Maintaining a relatively simple, disciplined investing
strategy, over time, favors positive results.
TAO 9 11/24 1000cst Exiting TVIX. Back to the sidelines, for awhile
Transit Aspect Oscillator: an astro scientific index. Transit aspects as they affect global psychology, mundane events, and economics. 11/13 France >= 9/11. Restructuring.
Refer to Equity Charts: 8/11 and 8/19 SP Chart Collapse prediction. Not done yet...
11/17 The Implosion neareth. TAO 9 is a Global astro econ/psych/welfare cycles guide.
The SOMC trading record = both Bull/Bear for 2+yrs. Within 1-2 days of being outright Bear.
11/17, 8/12: The astro/economic overview: Global Bear (VEU,EEM) market in progress. Global assets peaked 2011-15. Global GDPs decelerating. Deflation dominant. US/GE Bonds stable.
There is now (TAO 9) a confidence crisis, and a debt and leverage implosion. CB's efforts failing.
11/17: When China/Japan/Eurozone promote birth rate (30yr lag) to stimulate, the Sperm has left the Equation. As far as I can analyze, TAO 8 is the both theoretically and empirically most solid.
For the optimists, 2019 will be another local high, after carnage.
Charts: 11/12 1100: SPX Daily and Monthly, posted. 2006-2015 TAO 9 below charts.
TAO 9 : Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 9
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.
ETF Position: 11/24 1000cdt: Technicals and Astro. Daily/Weekly bias: short equities, long US/GE Bonds.
When China/Japan/Eurozone promote birth rate (30yr lag) to stimulate, the sperm has left the equation...
Current Buy Date Time Price Stop Sell Date Price %
TVIX 11/20 1150 6.32 11/24 1000 6.44 + 1.9
From July 21,2015 %+/-- # #+ #- %+ %-- Pts+ Pts- Ave+ Ave-
EQUITY ETFs 62.8 17 14 3 82 18 72.6 -9.8 5.2 -3.3
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below
SPX Daily 11/12/15 1100:
Since SPX is now at the 25exa (2059). Thee 12/16ama combo is rolling over. The 5 moving averages are close to maximum positive spread (contra Sep 2015) and will decline into a sustained negative spread. This will take weeks into months. The momentum 9/25 and 25/64 Exp MACDs are now in gear lower. Enjoy the benefit of buying the bear ETFs. Global economies continue slowing/contracting.
SPX Monthly 11/12/15 1100:
This chart is prescient for 6-8mths, into mid-2016. The last monthly 2011 budget correction didn't penetrate the lower 2.0 BB. The latest Aug/Sep 2015 did. And the rebound failed at the upper, inner 1.0BB. And no new monthly highs for 9mth and counting. The 16/36/12 MACD crossed last in mid-2009, and now Aug 2015. The CCI is holding below 100. SPX is beginning its major 20-40+% decline. 5 waves. SP 1350.
= +/- A definite panic buy. Enjoy. Now, til 2019, 100+%. Then sell.
Transit Aspect Oscillator TAO 9: 1/3/2006--12/31/2015.
The SP 500 is black, left scale, with the recent Aug/Sep correction notable, upper right. The TAO 9, red, right scale, with Zero mid-scale. As the TAO 9 declined sharply through Zero, there was the Global equity drop. The TAO 9 last sustained below zero values mid-2007--late 2011. The continuous very low (-5000 to -8000) TAO 9 (and TAO 8) readings reflect Global pessimism, suffering and economic contraction. From 1900 up to the present, every time the TAO 9 has dropped to and/or sustained the current negative readings there has been a significant economic decline. The statistical significance is greater than 1:10,000 against chance. Therefore, it is likely 2015-16, the global recession evolves further.
This TAO 9 descent does not seem dramatic, nor especially significant. However, historically, over the last 115 years, It Is. Recently, there were similar TAO 9 drops 1973-75 (oil shock), 1980-83 (ending of stagflation, high interest rates), and 1987-1993 (US equity, Japan equity/housing/asset crashes). Then, the Transit Aspect Oscillator made a record sustained 6 year rally, 1995-2000 (dot com and other bubbles), declining sharply 2001-03 (9/11, recession). Rose into 2006 and stalled (showing the beginning of Bernacke/global CB interventions).
The global economy (misery) persisted 2008-2011. 2014 ended the global CB QE ramps as per 2015 TAO 9 and 2014 TAO 8 graphs.