Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 now available: 12/ 08/ 14
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
SOMC Purposes: TAO 9 Transit Aspect Oscillator
1) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
2) Equities: 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience
3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold
4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations
10/9 0850: After this higher equity open, a lower close is forecast. Momentum is turning lower. Moderate risk.
0820: After the stop-out 10/8, looking for a re-entry of SPXS early today.
10/7 1420: The equity activity today is more or less normal and acceptable. The expectation now is for lower SP 10/8-9, into next week.
0800: Overnight SP futures have risen to major overhead, indicating an SPX open near the 1999 level, 49dama 1997, 64ema 2000. Today, an entry of SPXS is likely, and early, with a tight stop. A close below the SPXS open will be sufficient to hold overnight.
10/6 0700: The rally is close to major overhead; the risks increase. This current chart formation can turn into an exhaustion island by the end of today.
If/when it does, time to prepare for a reversal. The island can take up to 4 days to develop, starting with the 10/5 close. Exiting SPXL on the open.
10/2 1030: The above chart and commentary still applies. This am was a news/data related decline, holding above the lower 2.0BB, and sustaining a 2hr rally, turning intraday momentum positive. And today the daily 9/25 MACD is rolling positive. $SPX attractors, 1960-1990=room for higher prices. Probably more commentary over the weekend. Enjoy.
10/1 0800: The overnight activity has shown consistent weakening, increasing the risk. Exiting on the open, looking for an eventual long re-entry.
9/30 0800: The US equity open will increase the probability of the above chart note, further gains into 10/2 US NFP report.
9/29 0900: The 144min chart of SPX confirmed this am what I was looking for on the daily 9/28. The SPXL is relatively low risk. Chart later.
9/28 0730: The technicals are still unclear, with shorter term more bullish, and longer term bearish. A clarifying chart is needed, and likely posted tomorrow. The Lunar eclipse was last night, and the overnight rally attempt failed. My slight subjective bias for equities is Long, after lower early.
9/23 0900: Enough for now. I see no immediate statistical direction worth the risk. Therefore, we'll watch from the safety of the sidelines.
9/18 1330: The gap lower this am was below support, a No vote on the Fed. SPXS a likely hold into 9/21. Another chart tomorrow.
9/17 1400: Longer upside SP attractor (2020-30) reached. This signal may be one day early. Moderate risk.
9/15 1430: Close enough, target met. Risk increases, exit. Further equity upside remains most likely, but coupled with some chop.
9/11 1300: The UDOW signal remains valid (TQQQ,SPXL also ok), and even with the recent intra-day decline, momentum is improving. TLT needed to start declining after being higher early, and it is. VIX is weakening, with further to go.
0900: Thank you for your patience. The week of absence in equities has resulted in a probable buying opportunity, even into the FED 9/17. A new chart (daily SP likely) will be posted 9/12 highlighting the complex bottom. MA's are negative; momentum is positive. Trade possible today.
9/ 3 1500: For an indefinite period, I will not be able to post...resolving technical difficulties.
8/15 1300: ETFs, as outlined from 2006, make possible gains during disasters. For everyone. Into Jul/Aug 2016, BUY short US equity ETFs. You can do this. For myself, 30yrs experience helps. I've been through similar. The global economic dam has been leaking for several years, exacerbated by the CBs. It's simple now. Buy short. Assets means Assets. All hard assets are deflating. Deflation is dominate, contrary to CBs Max inflationary policies. Contrast, Inflation Is out of control in weak currency countries. US strongest, GB/GE/Nor next.
8/14 0740: Bull has turned to Bear in China and EMs. Corrections, to varying %s, are occurring in other global equity markets. For the US, the SPX/NY/NSX/DJI/R2 are lower by 2/3/4/4/7%, respectively, from their highs. The most likely scenario from today is an irregular equity rally into end Aug.. The caveat: a sharp decline is imminent. There is no historic parallel to current economic times. Globally low or negative interest rates, record debt, slowing growth, and deflationary pressures. The global economy is contracting under these weights. The final demise has begun. Between now and end Aug there may not be any significant rally. My work indicates a rally is most likely, not certain. New chart soon.
ETFs: Some Liquid and favored US Equity, US Bond, US Gold, US Oil:
Long = Buy: SPY,SPXL,QQQ,TQQQ,IWM,TNA,TLT,TMF,GLD,NUGT,UWTI Profits on Rising prices
Short = Buy: SH,SPXS,PSQ,SQQQ,RWM,TZA,TBF,TMV,DZZ,DUST,DWTI Profits on Falling prices
8/29: Weekly/Monthly: Global Equity BEAR. US/GE Bonds: ok. Gold is currency dependent. Currencies are at the fickle whim of local CBs. Oil in oversupply. Maintaining a relatively simple, disciplined investing
strategy, over time, favors positive results.
TAO 9 10/9 0850 Buying SPXS, 0820cdt note
Transit Aspect Oscillator: an astro scientific index. Transit aspects as they affect global economics.
Refer to Equity Charts: 8/11 and 8/19 SP Chart Collapse prediction.
Tues/Fri Commentary below current Position and Chart
8/12: The astro/economic overview: Severe Bear market in progress. US equities/assets (global) have peaked. Global GDPs decelerating. Deflation dominant. US/GE Bonds stable.
There is (TAO 9) a confidence crisis, and a debt and leverage implosion. CB's efforts failing.
Charts: 10/5 0600 SP Futures Daily 10/5 @0505 posted below
TAO 9 : Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 9
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.
ETF Position: 10/9 0850cdt: Using both Technicals and Astro. (Near term bias is flat equities and bonds)
Current Buy Date Time Price Stop Sell Date Price %
SPXS 10/9 0850 18.40 18.04
From July 21,2015 %+/-- # #+ #- %+ %-- Pts+ Pts- Ave+ Ave-
EQUITY ETFs 56.5 11 10 1 91 9 56.5 1.4 5.8 1.4
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below
10/05 0600:P 500 E-mini Futures Daily: 10/05/15 just after 0500.
The 9/30 SP futures chart (now in Equity Charts) and commentary forecast a likely rally of 1-2 weeks duration. We're in it.
This am's chart indicates some probabilities of how it (and global equities) will continue. I will give the SP targets and %'s, which can be extrapolated to other indexes. For this SP chart, it's extending the initial 9/30 thrust off the lower 2.0BB, through the first overhead barriers of the 12/16 ma (mid 1.0BB 16ma) and 25ema trend lines, and now approaching the upper 1.0 at 1967 (1976 SPX), 1.2% higher from Friday's 10/2 close. Maybe a 1-2 day temporary stall there. Then, most likely, is extension to the triple attractors (via mean reversion) of the 49ama 1987, 64ema 1988 and upper 2.0BB 1991= average about 1989= 2.3-2.4% higher, from the 10/2 Closes (SPX 1999 cash).
I am going to update this week several Overviews on this site. The ancient Asian curse applies: "May you be born in interesting times." Fortunately, as with Yin/Yang, curses/benefits, tails/heads, etc., just 2 perspectives. Each with merit. For now, into this week and the beginning of US Q3 earnings, enjoy any long position, and be aware of both SPX 1976 and 1999 for an exit.