Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 now available: 12/ 08/ 14
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
ETF RESULTS: Net Investing Stats From Initiation: July 1, 2014
ETFs %+/-- # #+ #- %+ %-- Pts+ Pts- Ave+ Ave-
EQUITIES 88.6% 30 23 7 76 24 155.0 -12.4 6.7% -1.7%
US BONDS 31.7% 10 8 2 80 20 33.5 -1.8 4.2% -0.9%
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
1) Bull/ Bear market positive earnings: Equities, Bonds and Gold (USD based)
2) TAO 8 research: scientific astrocyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
3) Submit Weekly Charts and Analysis: Stocks, Bonds and Gold
4) Research statistically other Numerical and Planetary cycles
COMMENTARY... (12/ 8: Older trading notes have been moved to Trading Notes History)
1/26 0700: From mid-day Friday into this am, futures were the only place to be; Syriza now has won, and futures gapped lower to recover. European bonds are suffering the most. The 125, daily and weekly equity models remain on buys, and likely to continue until the FED Wed.. If the SP can close near unchanged, it will come closer to being a sell (at minor overhead resistance). Overall, today into 1/28 is mixed and likely irregular.
1/23 0700: Closer to an equity sell. The signal can occur one of 2 main ways now. Waiting. Bonds continue favorable.
1/22 0750: And indeed the ECB is buying, inflating equities a little. The sell zone is approaching once again. Waiting for the set up.
1/21 1000: A few hours and an ECB leak later, new SPXL highs and a met target (25d ema). Since it's counter-trend, an exit with a thank you.
0700: A lower low in TMV mandated an exit. For SPXL, 1/20 saw a higher high & low. Today is more problematic, with another higher high not being likely. So the stop was raised to secure a small gain. As the TAO 9 suggests, optimism based on promises is fading.
1/20 0700: The economic overview: unprecedented global Central Bank intervention, and that is resulting in other extreme conditions. Over time, debt and leverage will regress to the mean. And nearer "the end" the markets overwhelm the CBs (Switzerland, among others recently). For now, equities (SPXL) over the weekend are improving, and rates are slightly lower, but TMV is still valid. Earnings, ECB and Greece this week.
1/19 0700: Friday, the 125min and bi-daily models indicated a reversal at the morning data times. Now long equities and short bonds. These are counter trend trades, and carry a higher risk. The likely duration is also an unknown. Futures are essentially unchanged. I will attempt to add both equity and bond charts sometime today. Statistically, it is likely that both equities and bonds will regress toward the mean for awhile.
1/16 0700: For equities, the 125min, bi-daily and daily models have been on sells for a few days. The weekly's are still on buys. This am's pricing is mixed; there is weekly support at the current levels of most of the indexes. 50/50 at the moment. The CB's still have fire power.
1/15 0700: Even with the TAO 9 plunging, and fundamentals eroding, it would help a final collapse to be preceded by an unexpected equity rally. This would congest the ma's more, increase the draw of trend following models (like in 2000 and 2007), and set the stage. The oil decline is adding to the destabilization of currencies. Like a top that is losing spin; it seems ok until just before it topples.
1/14 0830: Staying with the conservative mode. On the whole for SOMC, the focus will be charts and overview, not trades.
0700: Near the close, the last data point at 1430 confirmed the daily sells of equities and gold, with a buy of bonds. Technically there can be a rapid breakdown as earlier this month, but this time with follow through. The TAO 9 forecasts an imminent (Jan/Feb/Mar) equity decline. The current activity is favorable. New charts will be posted soon, with analysis. Steep oil declines happen within or the beginning of recessions.
1/13 0700: 3 large wild cards during the next week are ECB, Greece and initial US earnings. Oil is ongoing damage to the vulnerable economies and locally dependent areas. The projected equity rise is likely to continue from the open into at least 1/14-15. Gold may be near a local top.
1/12 0700: A day unlikely for a trade. Equities ideally continue to work irregularly higher into mid-week, setting up a sell.
1/ 9 0740: Given ADP on Wed this am's numbers came in as expected. ADP now is more accurate in many ways than the BLS report. The equity rally of the last 2 days was in part ADP based and short-covering. SOMC remains a biased equity bear, and expects the rally to flatten after 1-3% higher. Bond prices will likely drop further into that rally, then rally again on sharp equity declines. Gold, presently, is problematic and left alone.
1/ 8 0700: This site will be flat much of time, using the occasional high probability trades, with leverage, to achieve results. These trades can be both of shorter and longer duration, and will be identified as such. The 2 primary vehicles will be SP 500 and 20+yr US Bond leveraged x3 ETFs. Gold is problematic currently, but will occasionally be traded. Today, the reflexive, pre-US Jobs report rally continues and is expected to last into the numbers.
1/ 7 0700: Today there will be a revision of the Charts pages. The aim is to keep them timely. Meanwhile, an equity rebound into the Jobs report.
1/ 6 0800: SOMC will be now using bi-daily (2 data points per day) models. These I first invented in 1988. They were effective then, and through the last 26 years have remained reliable. They can hold positions for longer periods. During the day the previous trade for these 3 models (SSO was profitable, both TBT and DZZ were losses). More later.
1/ 5 0700: Apparently negative sentiment is in control (TAO 9 falling), and the expected equity decline beginning. For 2015, this site will change focus from shorter duration trades (as with the trading history pages) toward the weekly signals: currently long equities & bonds, short gold.
7/ 12: 2014 is both a 7 and a 4 year, and 2nd of a Pres Election cycle. These suggest a lower bias. This is usually, at minimum, a correction cycle. At maximum, it is a Trend Reversal, from extended Bull to Bear. The above equity, bond and gold models usually start with the 196m signal, and progress through daily into weekly, as a new trend evolves. Mars has been active as a trigger for recent global events.
SPXL = SP500 Long, x3, TMF = 20+yr Long, 3x, PROFITS FROM RISING Prices.
SPXS = SP500 Short, x3, TMV = 20+yr Short, 3x, PROFITS FROM DECLINING Prices.
The TAO 9 is now declining into the zone where social/political/economic upheavals will occur this time, akin to late 29-32-35 (US,Europe),
late 87-90 (US, Japan), late 00-03 (US, Global), late 07-10 (US,Global), and late14-16 (GLOBAL). The Unraveling will be widespread.
An Investor can benefit from Equity and US Bond moves through long and inverse ETFs. Maintaining a relatively simple, disciplined investing strategy, over time, favors positive results. A key is identifying the local trend technically, using the ETFs with stops, and repeating the process.
HOME of the TAO 9: 1/ 26 0700cst
Equity ETFs, US Bonds, Cycles (Numeric and Astronomic)
Probability models for 2015:
Equities: Flat. Longer term, The Bear begins, with 20+% declines 2015.
US Bonds: Flat. Short term, rallies on sharp equity declines. By late 2015, bear.
Gold (GLD): Not traded. Will be volatile, as global currencies destabilize. By mid 2015, bull.
The TAO 9 is graphically indicating both a sharp drop in equities and elevated bonds for 2015.
See for yourself the correlations. 80-82, 87-90, 01-03, 07-09 replays? Astronomically, yes.
12/ 8: TAO 9 Graphs, 3 Page Analysis, and 2015 Financial Forecast, now available.
Charts: 1/19 1300 SP futures, 125min
Daily Commentary below trades/results
TAO 8 : Brief summary and Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlates positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 8 is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of the specific planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 8
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 8 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
8 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 8
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The emerging equity season will favor falling leaves, and the selling of rallies.
Current status: 1/ 26 0700cst: (Also refer to Equity/Gold/Bond Trading Hx)
ETF Current Buy Date Price Stop Sell Date Price
Equities Flat: SPXL 1/16 1100 80.40 1/21 1000 84.72 +5.3%
Bonds Flat: TMV 1/16 1100 26.10 1/20 1400 25.84 -1.0%
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Technical Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below