Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
Transit Aspect Oscillator A Global (personal) Psychological and Economic Indicator
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 available:
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
SOMC Purposes: TAO 9 Transit Aspect Oscillator
1) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
2) Equities: 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience
3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold
4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations
NOTES... Previous notes on Trading Notes Hx
08/23 0700: The Osc remains mixed, and ready for a 5+% equity index move. Today, equities opening higher, then fading later. Lower week.
08/22 0700: Overnight, favorable. The Eclipse is 10 days away, with equities weakening rapidly. The Oscillators (needs a name) indicate that a trending move is to start within days, with a 20+ SP point change (10+%) likely. The Oscillator graphs, et.al., are still being worked on.
08/19 0700: Equities opening lower, closing much lower. Declining momentum is entering the short term free-fall zone. The new charts to be posted pinpoint intraday, daily and weekly equity trend changes. Over time, the Oscillator coverage will be expanded (positions, trading signals and results, tables, narrative, derivations, etc.). The Oscillator additions are a quantification of my hand charts, and apply to all markets and conditions.
08/18 0700: Re-entry into TZA likely early, as momentum has reversed lower. XLF will be a substantial drag on equities into the Oct bottom.
08/17 0700: Intraday equity momentum has reversed lower, with daily in close pursuit. Today may be erratic, but won't reverse this lower mo trend.
08/16 0700: Equities, though higher for longer 8/15, likely peaked, for 2016. The SP500 is projected lower to 1970 by end Oct. The Eclipse designates many of the negative factors at work. There will be severe, sudden global and local (like Louisiana) impacts and disruptions. By end Oct it will likely be labeled an historic time. The Eclipse and 2 SPX charts starting 8/17. Today, equities open lower, closing with 0.5-1.0+% losses.
08/15 0700: New charts, daily and weekly, and maybe even an Eclipse, this week. Overnight, Asia rallied, and Eurozone peaked earlier. US today, higher early, closing lower. Some solar eclipses are benign. Sept 1 is malefic, featuring increasing fear and destruction. 8/15-9/15+ equities lower.
08/12 0700: 8/11 only partly worked out. Today, the US indexes are all 0.3% within an intraday/daily high. The psychology (astro) likely to change.
08/11 0700: The sentence was life, for the murder of my wife's brother 4yrs ago. Equities, gradually eroding local highs/ows. Forecast remains for a weekly close at the very low end of the range (8/8 high, 8/12 lowest low), into a sequence of 3 lower weekly closes. Today, the highs by 1100am.
08/10 0700: Hurry up and wait, as the Eclipse clock ticks. As with 8/9, equities, after minor early highs, weakening later. I was at court almost all day 8/9, and will leave for final sentencing just after 1200.
08/09 0700: Japan and eastern equatorial S. America receive direct 9/1 Eclipse effects. Today, equities quiet early, then ideally weakening quickly.
08/08 0700: Today looks to be mixed variable equities. 8/9 starts greater dynamics. The 9/1 Eclipse is a major negative, with equity highs prior. Usually the effects of this 9/1 Eclipse (replete with hard aspects) start to be felt a minimum of 2 weeks before. Then this current week will likely start a sharp equity decline. Meanwhile, today, holding the positions through the open.
08/05 0740: The early US equity gains likely to weaken, not extend. No change in the longer outlook.
08/04 0700: Probable re-entry of TZA near the open. More later.
08/03 0700: Initially, the equity decline will be slow erosion, for 1-2+ weeks, lower highs/lows, and accelerate into Sep/Oct. Oct/Nov/Dec rally.
08/02 0700: Ideally, SPX closes below 2160. The extended 10+ day equity "high" is likely now to be a yearly high. And, again, Clinton elected.
08/01 0700: Higher early, then weakening. For SPX 2178 near the open, then ideally falls below 2160, 8/1-2. A very unusual technical picture...
07/29 0700: Today is important. Probable significant downside for equities, followed by several lower weeks.
07/28 0700: Overnight, favorable. The 10+ day multiple equity index islands signal topping of an enduring nature: 10+% lower by end Sep.
07/27 0700: Puzzling, yet tolerable. Going nowhere slowly. The bias is 50/50, short term, especially today, given the FED...
07/26 0800: Tested the lower half of the tight 9 day range, and rebounded. The FED 7/27...
07/25 0700: No change. The probable remains lower equities. A daily chart of SPX 7/26 or 27.
07/22 0700: Higher equities early, weakening into a lower close.
07/21 0915: SPX 10 min momentum reversed lower 7/19. Below 2167, ama's augment. Risk is 2177, and ideally does not approach that again.
07/21 0700: For the last week, equity stasis. A sustained 90min SPX below 2164 reverses short term momentum, target 2132, 12/16ama average.
07/20 0700: In the current CB, negative rate environment, a change to different technical models is required. For now, holding the TZA open.
07/19 0700: NYA is likely to be negative all day, and begin a 2mth decline. Daily upper 2.0BBs have held, and VIX begins a rise.
07/18 0700: Finally, global equities set to decline. TLT has corrected, and ready to rise. 7/12 note even more pertinent. I am working on both a global equity index (probably 4 index/ETF components), and a master astro index to be distributed later this year. Today, higher opens, lower closes.
07/15 0740: The higher open is likely followed by a steady decline into a lower close. VIX rising after a lower open. Today, VIX is important.
07/14 0730: Time to reassess. The models have failed beyond tolerance limits. Ergo, a change. Pause, reset and reemerge...
07/13 0700: Equities higher early then weakening gradually into a lower close.
07/12 1000: The 0850 TZA signal was coincident with sells of all the stock indexes, as well as HYG,JNK,IYT,VEU,VGK,XLF,XLK,XLV,XLP,XLY,USO and probably GLD,SLV, with buys of VIX,TLT, and similar. The "why's" fundamentally are broad. Technically, at the upper limits of the 2.0BBs. Prices have over-extended the normal ma's, and are likely not only to regress to the means, but also begin the anticipated decline into Sep lows. Technical exhaustion, coupled with fanciful idealism and optimism (TAO local high). Less than one step (event) away from the "cliff...".
0730: The TZA stop was triggered; my error. Now flat. Some new yearly US index highs, and that's a problem. More later. (VIX still alive.)
07/11 0700: The difficulties compounded on Friday. Reliable publishing was not possible, and out of my control. My apologies for the inaccuracies. Currently, long TNA. VIX is only covered now on the VIX page, and it reversed early. Today, equities higher early, weakening later. SPX especially will open near its upper risk limit (wkly chart). Lower into Sep is the forecast. We'll see...
07/08 0740: So far, both technical and astro failures. Today, Equities pushing to a 1% gain, then closing moderately higher. The 7/1 weekly SPX chart remains valid. VIX will only be on the VIX page, with minimal commentary. Global equities in relationship with astro is the focus with SOMC.
07/07 0700: 7/8 is astro likely to be lower, implying equities weakening today.
07/06 0700: Status quo. Globally, the economic condition is so unique that models fail. Technicals and TAO 10 remain reliable.
07/05 0700: Improving technicals for SPXS (shorts). For equities, Astro is negative into 7/8, and charts favoring a sharp global decline.
07/01 0701: Seasonals (into 7/1) won, overhead resistance lost. New SP daily chart by 7/4. Today, likely holding into a lower US 7/5 open.
ETFs: Some Liquid and favored US Equity, US Bond, US Gold, US Oil:
Long = Buy: SPY,SSO,SPXL,QQQ,TQQQ, IWM,TNA,UVXY,TLT,TMF,GLD,NUGT,UWTI Profits on Rising prices
Short = Buy: SH,SDS,SPXS,PSQ,SQQQ,RWM,TZA, XIV, TBF,TMV,DZZ,DUST,DWTI Profits on Falling prices
TAO 9 : Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 9
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below
SPX Daily 8/19/16 1500: Trend change lower Imminent.
This SP 500 chart has the extended (5wks) feature of essentially unchanged, with the lowest 5wk range in memory. To state the obvious, this will change. Likely, a 10+% equity slide soon.
The 9/1 Solar Eclipse is one major factor, replete with hard aspects. For the SE USA, a major hurricane landfall is almost likely, added to the Louisiana disastrous flooding (the Lunar Cap ingress with both Jupiter & Neptune). The Eclipse will coincide with multiple, major global "events".
In the SPX chart below, the BBs are almost maximally narrowed (trend likely to initiate). A lower BB breakout (2157) is probable, then extending to/beyond 2135, the 64ema/49ama pair. The 169ema near 2077 is relatively important support, only temporarily recently broken post Brexit, and is a primary target for the next few weeks. The 9/25 MACD is prepped to plunge. Increased Volatility for the 8/22 week+.
Transit Aspect Oscillator TAO 9: 1/3/2006--12/31/2015.
The SP 500 is black, left scale, with the recent Aug/Sep correction notable, upper right. The TAO 9, red, right scale, with Zero mid-scale. As the TAO 9 declined sharply through Zero, there was the Global equity drop. The TAO 9 last sustained below zero values mid-2007--late 2011. The continuous very low (-5000 to -8000) TAO 9 (and TAO 8) readings reflect Global pessimism, suffering and economic contraction. From 1900 up to the present, every time the TAO 9 has dropped to and/or sustained the current negative readings there has been a significant economic decline. The statistical significance is greater than 1:10,000 against chance. Therefore, it is likely 2015-16, the global recession evolves further.
This TAO 9 descent does not seem dramatic, nor especially significant. However, historically, over the last 115 years, It Is. Recently, there were similar TAO 9 drops 1973-75 (oil shock), 1980-83 (ending of stagflation, high interest rates), and 1987-1993 (US equity, Jap equity/housing/asset crashes). Then, the Transit Aspect Oscillator made a record sustained 6 year rally, 1995-2000 (dot com and other bubbles), declining sharply 2001-03 (9/11, recession). Rose into 2007 and stalled (showing the futility of Bernacke discounts).
The global economy (misery) persisted 2008-2011. 2014 ended the global CB QE ramps as per 2015 TAO 9 and 2014 TAO 8 graphs.
TAO 9 8/23cdt 1100 Leaving for the rest of the day. Positions/stops ok. 0700 note
8/10: Astro is reliable longer term (mths-yrs) for equities (real-time for people). Equities today only partially represent the current global human condition (TAO 10). TAO 10 weakens into Sep/Oct 2016, and the local equity low.
Transit Aspect Oscillator TAO, an astro scientific index. Transit aspects as they affect global psychology, mundane events, and economics. There is a Global financial/political traumatic restructuring in progress. Global equities peaked 2014-15. Global GDPs decelerating (negative likely 2016). Deflation dominant. US/German Bonds stable.
8/19: Beginning Monday 8/22, a New x3 Oscillator and Daily Index charts (both technical), updated weekly.
8/17: Equities: Eclipse 9/1. 8/15 high, then Sep/Oct 10-20+% lower. A Clinton election rally into Jan 2017.
This Solar Eclipse will have major, negative global impacts, with many hard (2nd/4th/8th harmonic) aspects.
Equity Charts: 8/22 SPX daily posted. 8/2 New x3 Oscillator and Daily Index charts, by 8/26.
2006-2015 TAO 9 beneath charts.
6/10/16 1500 $NYA 144min, 4 bars/day (5/6-6/10):
The NY Comp usually provides the clearest one index view of US equity trends (esp. when used with VEU and $VIX). All 3 painted the same picture last week: the last gasp of an internally weak rally. Here the focus is on 6/8 failing to exceed the 2.0BB and lower last bar high, 6/9 within the 1.0BB, with the 6/10 collapse below the lower 1.0BB.
The 6/6-6/8 breakout set the stage for a sharper decline. However,
6/10's fall stopped at the 16dama (64bar) & 25dema (100bar) combo. It may take NYA a few days to break below 6/10's low, but it is very likely to happen next week, and then continue lower to 10270, the 64dema, and then 9650, in phases yet to be known. The 12dama (48 bar) is now rolling over, and 1.0BBs ready to decline and widen.
The 2 primary MACDs are included. All 4 lines are used together, and are now declining. In short, a large decline is probably beginning.
ETF Position: 8/23cdt 1100: Technicals and Astro. Global Bear market, Deflation, TAO Fear Elevated.
(Volatility: Only on VIX Trades & Hx)
Current Buy Date Time Price Stop Sell Date Time Price %
In TZA 8/22 1430 28.39 27.25
Exit TZA 8/18 1245 28.56 8/22 1124 28.56s - 0.0
Exit TZA 8/15 1127 28.05L 8/17 1120 29.52 + 5.2
Stats: L = limit s = stop out
From 7/1/16: Net%+/-- # #+ #- W% L% Sum+ Sum- Ave%+ Ave%-
EQUITY ETFs 1.1 10 3 7 30 70 13.4 - 12.3 4.4 - 1.8
7/21/15 - 7/1/16 149.0 81 52 29 64 36 198.7 -50.7 3.8 -1.8