CYCLES:  Equity ETF Trading, leveraged              

                                                                                                                                   Richard  Schulz

DISCLAIMER


SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability.  Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions.  SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice.  It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance.  Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance.  No return of capital is implied or guaranteed.  There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions.  No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here.  Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument.   All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz.  The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright.  The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.

Transit Aspect Oscillator  A Global (personal) Psychological and Economic Indicator

       TAO 9 Applications:

        To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO  and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
       The three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable predictive value  relative to global stock prices.  The creation of the TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.   
       The rise and fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the rise and fall of global wellness, measured by stock prices. When the TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate, manifesting in stock market declines.  When the TAO 9 is above zero and rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically, with rising stock market prices.  
      SOMC combines the TAO 9's intrinsic value with 25+ years of  technical market analysis and developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the stock and commodity markets effectively.
      The graph of the aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown.  This graph (not shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and mathematical.  SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical models to time and trade  intermediate and long term.

.....

CONTACT:   richardschulz12@yahoo.com             

richardschulz12@yahoo.comRichard Frank Schulz 

07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA 
Bachelor of Science, 1978         

Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987

Transiting Aspect Oscillator:


1)  TAO


2)  Subcription:   Not available currently

     a)  TAO graphs, derivation and use

     b)  To be determined

     c)  Weekly commentary and technical charts


     richardschulz12@yahoo.com

Richard Schulz
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL   61108-7503


779-537-5835

 


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SOMC Purposes:   11/25/18


1)  Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations

2)  Utilize 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience

3)  Demonstrate ExpO X and ExpO XX as effective trading tools

NOTES


2018

11/16  1000:  Next week may begin an equity collapse.  Currencies destabilizing.  Weekly ExpO Z & X weakening again.

11/15  Another leg lower begins Fri?

10/27: Sharp short-covering Equity rally this week

10/27: Lacksman Achuthan: On the Great Wall of Debt..."Notably, the combined debt of the US, Eurozone, Japan, and

China has increased more than 10 times as much as their combined GDP (growth) over the past year." = defaults loom, Depression.

The Global 'Enjoy now, Pay later,' plan ends, at the steep "We're broke, & default," price.  Global economic turmoil & conflicts, into 2022+.

10/26 0700:  Feb was the initial Bear move.  Jun confirmed for Global ex US.  Oct confirmed for US.

10/8-9-10-11  0700:  Sustained global equity Bear activity.

10/4  0700:  10-4.   Maybe it is "over & out" from today, for equities
9/26  1400:  Volatility:  "Times, they are a changin..."

9/25  0700:  Volatility almost non-existent...

9/13  1400:  UVXY (VIX) is basing = equities to decline, ~Feb 2018 and then some.  An "Event" (Minsky) is due.

9/7    0750: Job cuts trending higher, NFP -50k revisions.  US begins Bear  8/30.  VEU, VGK, VWO Bear from 6/22.

9/6    0900: Year 2022: Up for auction: DJT's 1st orange jump suit, signed, but faded. Tried to wash it; wouldn't come clean.

9/4    0730:  suggesting ~July 1998 (currency) & ~Sep 1929 (extended leverage, debt, trade with tighter FED)

8/30      IT has to start sometime, aka Aug 1929.  The unraveling begins: both political and economic, globally.
8/28      VEU, VGK & VWO are continuing Bears (6/22/18).  & Coming soon to a major index near you,...

8/14      Equities at risk now for several 5% declines into Dec.

8/8    0900:    Global currencies & equities destabilizing.  Eclipse on DJT and Jup/Sat waning 45 aspect, among others.
7/31  0700:    "All the President's Men."    Madoff: "I'm surprised I got away with it so long."    Manafort, et.al. ?...


1 - 30 0700:  The eventual 2020-2022+ Depression seems like a vacuous vapor at present  It is on the horizon, however.

1 - 26:  USD usually requires 2+ weeks to form its base, then rally (into a bull...).


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The TAO:      An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model

     1)  100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator

     2)  A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance

             a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and social stability

             b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability

     3)  SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions

01/23/17:    The W.H.O. ICD-10 Dx Manual:  The US Pres = 5 major Personality disorders: 1) Narcissistic, 2) Histrionic,

                     3) Emotionally Unstable, 4) Paranoid and 5) Dissocial  6) Impulsive       

                           My behavioral assessment:    Politically,   DJT is a global risk.   Economically,  "Con Don" fleeces anyone for personal gain.  

                     DJT's  Dx's are entrenched for life.  For DJT, all "perceived" threats become "real", and are attacked.  Early dementia probable.

NYSE  Hourly  &   ExpO  X                          posted 12/15                                                10/13/17  to 12/14/18 close

                                                               

Price Trend:  Bear activity                            ExpO X: complex bottom

This week:  irregularly higher

    

NYSE Bi-daily & ExpO  X (New)       posted 12/15    Exponential Oscillator, zeroed          12/15/16 to 12/14/18 close

    

        Price Trend: Weekly & Monthly  Bear.          ExpO X: Complex bottom

This week:   Weakness early, sharp rally possible


01/29-02/09/18 initial Bear thrust, 04/03 correction ended.    10/01-10/12 2nd Bear thrust & confirmation.

IWM Bi-Daily  & ExpO X                        posted 12/15                                                       5/16/16 to 12/14/18 close

      

        Price Trend:  Weekly & Monthly Bear               ExpO  X: nearing exhaustion low  

This week:  buying dips

IWM Hourly   &    ExpO  X                                  posted 12/15                                           7/02/16  to  12/14/18 close

                                                                   (back data being added gradually)

Price Trend:  As with IWM Bi-Daily: Bear            ExpO  X:  Compression low

This week:  Buying dips

Preface to Exponential Oscillator Charts

            Daily charts use bi-daily data.           Hourly uses (ct) 0830, 0930, 1030, 1130, 1230, 1330, 1430, 1455.

      98+% of ExpO C values range between +/- 500. 

      The zero line identifies trends, and trends continue until a reversal ~+/- 100 is sustained.   When ExpO C exceeds ~+/- 200 then another guideline is to use the average of the previous 2 pivots for a reversal value.

ExpO Z >< +/- 300  are extreme values and short term reversals are expected.

TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014    Vertical is yearly.

                TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange.  SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.

8/ 11/ 14:   The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought.  The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness.  And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability.


VEU   &    ExpO  X   Bi-Daily                     posted 12/15                                  12/28/16  to  12/14/18 close


        Price Trend:  VEU, VGK, VWO  Bear markets.             ExpO  X:  Complex higher low

This week:  Year end rally starting

  

6/22/18:  Initial Bear designations.

12 - 15 cst                                

                                              ETF  Trading        ExpO  Z  Charts    


ExpO      Exponential Oscillator Trends:   Tactical Trading (holding Hours/Days)

Charts    12-14 close:   NYSE  &  IWM (Bi-daily & Hourly)  &  VEU  (Bi-daily)  ExpO X Oscillator

                                                                                                                             A New Technical Indicator 

                                                                                                                                                                 

TAO       Transit Aspect Oscillators:   Astro scientific indexes.   Transit aspects as they affect global status.

               Ideally, in Dec, Astro TAO Charts: Monthly 1900-2020  >10,000 PPM Correlation with stock prices

               7/12/18  Eclipse inflicts DJT.   Globally, end Jul/early Aug  Jupiter-Saturn 45 aspect=enhanced negative.

               Global economic & political conflicts escalating into 2020+.  Major restructuring inevitable = Global Depression.


Notes:  refer also to Notes Hx below charts

12-14 0700:   Gov closure likely = tza to hold into 12/17...


12-04  0700: 1) Weekly ExpO X charts, 2) gradual addition of Astro charts, & 3) occasional trades.

 

Tactical Trading (very short term)   ExpO XX model   1 to 5 min data  (time frame minutes to days)
                                                             ExpO X4h model   4hr data           (time frame days+)

postings are  +/-15min delayed                                 

                                                                                                                  Away for Bridge: Tues 1040  &  Thur 0840


12-14  1500 cst...S=13.36r  1120 away soon, til?  holding unless stopped

           0920 Buying TZA

                 ETF         Date   Time          Price      Stop   Sell Date  Time       Price          %       Model       

In               TZA         12/13  0920         13.01      13.36      E XX

Exit            TZA         12/13  0831         12.38                     12/13  1304      13.05L       5.4       E XX

Exit            TZA         12/12  1301         12.14                     12/12  1430      12.44         2.4       E XX

Exit            TZA         12/11  0942         12.25                     12/11  1043       12.68L       3.5       E XX

Exit            TZA         12/10  0845         12.65                     12/10  0944      13.10L       3.5       E XX

Exit            TZA         12/07  1211         11.35                     12/07  1356       12.85         6.5       E XX

Exit          TQQQ       12/06  0830         44.41                     12/06  1153       47.08L       6.0       E XX      

Exit            TZA         11/30  0940         10.93                     12/03  0840       10.68L    -  2.3       E XX

Exit            TNA         11/28  1030         60.10                     11/30  0940       63.38         5.4       E X4h

Exit            TZA         11/28  0903         11.63                      11/28  0930      11.98L        3.0       E XX


  S= Support   R = Resistance    r = rising   f = falling         L = limit   s = stop            


ExpO  XX  Tactical  Stats

                                Net%+/--    #      #+  #-     W%  L%    Sum+  Sum-   Ave%+ Ave%--    max draws

2018  TACTICAL  (ytd)      465.0          270    181   89       67     33         508.9    - 43.9       2.7       - 0.5             5.5  4.7  4.1


2017  TACTICAL               174.8          149      81   68       54     46          218.7    - 43.9       2.7       - 0.6           12.1  4.7  3.9

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