Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
Transit Aspect Oscillator A Global (personal) Psychological and Economic Indicator
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 available:
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
SOMC Purposes: TAO 9 Transit Aspect Oscillator
1) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
2) Equities: 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience
3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold
4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations
07/01 0701: Seasonals (into 7/1) won, overhead resistance lost. New SP daily chart by 7/4. Today, likely holding into a lower US 7/5 open.
06/30 0700: Today, erratic am, then weakening. SQQQ holding. Another attempt at UVXY probable. Brexit and consequences remain.
06/29 1130: All major US equity indexes are now within 0.5% of major overhead resistance. Tight stop. Forecast now: lower from here into 7/5+.
0700: The primary goals into Sep are: 1) reduce risk, 2) benefit from equity declines. Exiting TNA near the open. SPXS entry considered. More before the open. The next leg lower in global equities will be serious.
06/28 1315: Buying again after the intraday lows held = less risk. Now seasonals in the US help the equity, risk-on rebound into 7/1.
0700: Beginning the equity rally into 6/30-7/1. The 2016 equity highs are in. Destabilization into Sep. New daily chart 7/1.
06/16 0700: The CBs so far have done little. So, the mistake is now the SPXS non-entry 6/24. It occurred about 0940, just not executed. From here a 1-2 day contra-trend rally is needed to reduce the risk of SPXS, et.al.. For 6/27, a 60/40 of an early US equity bottom. A major low still in Sep.
06/24 0730: 3/28/07 FED Chairman Ben Bernacke "subprime seems likely to be contained". 2016 BOE Governor Mark Carney "We're well prepared for Brexit". Likely similar outcomes. Although an SPXS entry 6/23 carried great reward, the gap risk was too high, with Futures the only effective modality. So now, safely on the sidelines, we are faced with an inherently difficult entry. Patience at the moment. Equities have a 3 mth, deep Bear slide ahead. Today, an entry is unlikely. Into 6/27 the global CBs will intervene. Then the futility will settle in. US/German bonds remain stable.
0500: The global Bear market now continues with unanimity, into Sep 2016. New yearly lows ahead. SP and DJI futures did reach new highs 6/23 evening until Brexit became probable. Now the 6/15 "Brexit may be The black swan" is a reality. This is unique and unprecedented. The projection is for new yearly lows to be extended into Sep, with a V bottom rebound into the Clinton election. Refer 6/16 SOMC note.
06/23 0700: 6/21-22 "a choppy higher" and now 6/20 "new highs prior to 7/1" is more likely. Observing this am. More later.
06/22 0700: Equities technically: marginal, yet favorable. 6/21 "a choppy higher" still applies. Possible UVXY set-up near 7/1.
06/21 0700: The Market Uncertainty Principle: can know price or direction, but not both simultaneously...physics. The exit 6/20 went ok. Equities higher for a week is still most probable, barely, ergo a choppy higher. So I watch for awhile. 7/1 will be my new fiscal year start for stats. Enjoy...
06/20 0720: The positive about this am is that VEU/VGK had an island 6/17 buy. VIX was neutral. And NYA/NASX were holds. VEU won. The US indexes are now aimed at new highs prior to 7/1--this too a positive, adding to the magnitude of the decline into Sep. Today, early exit. XIV entry?
06/17 0700: SPX upside is limited to 0.5%, 1.5 downside for the inverse x3ETFs. Slightly higher in am, followed by weakness into a lower close.
06/16 0700: VEU is 7% lower from 6/8, and 19.7% from its last major weekly double top high 4/27/15. VGK is 25.8% lower from its 6/16/14 high. US equities will experience these declines+ into Sep...TAO 10 reflecting the paralyzing factors of global negative interest rates, demographic declines, brexit threat or reality, and debt weight/vulnerability (limiting growth). The stage was set by Bernacke (originally by Greenspan) and crew from 2006 ("...housing is contained..."), followed by the quick fixes of QE. Now the globe is experiencing the delayed and enhanced pain of those policies. Currently an unprecedented global economic condition, and worsening. The last somc 6/15 TNA/UVXY buys were a profitable Mistake. Had no business being long. An equity/economic collapse is dead ahead. And the main global CBs have created it, and are now powerless. The US indexes by Sep are likely to be 20+% lower from their highs...Bear Market. If it wasn't so tragic, it would be enjoyable with inverse equity ETFs.
06/15 1040: Risk/reward exit. I must be in court at 1300. One upside target reached. Probably more to come. However, what is missed on the upside contributes directly to greater downside potential. IWM is still the strongest, and remains a buy, just not for SOMC today.
0700: 6/14: IWM reached support (1.0 lower BB)(113.60), and buys were given. Probably holding until 1200, then reassess. The downtrend will remain intact into Sep. Brexit is part of the political theme globally this year, anti-establishment. And Brexit may be The black swan...we'll see...
06/14 0700: The Reset button. The longer decline has begun without a pause, so far. This am, watching.
06/13 0700: 2-3 day rally 1-2% (new highs?), into the FED, then sharply lower, as per the charts. Likely reversal (TNA?) on/near the US open.
06/10 0700: New Dy & Wk charts by 6/12. Meanwhile, status quo. Fear & destabilization reign. Likely holding into 6/13 and beyond...
06/09 0700: Astro is negative into 6/10+. Overnight, favorable, and weakening. Momentum/2.0 BB technicals improving all time frames, ideally ending a rugged 2wks of somc trading. The equity slide will be nearly all inclusive, probable 10-20+% into Sep. VIX, TLT/German Bonds improving. I will post 2 new charts over the weekend. More later.
06/08 0700: There may be higher highs, 50/50. The next 5+% equity move will be lower, even if more patience is required. Tight stops.
06/07 1355: All equity (global) indexes are sells, as well as HYG,JNK,XLF,XLV,USO for a few. Momentum and 2.0 BBs beginning to roll over.
0700: Higher equity highs to arrive, and humbling. Breakdown of the models. Resetting. Flat everything, and observing developments...
06/06 1050: The Indexes are rising, yet UVXY is holding its early am lows. VIX is rally ready. TLT a re-buy, and Oil, HYG, JNK sells.
0700: D-Day in more ways then one. The 2 week sequence took the long odds route, and equity/vix losses (GLD, TLT, HYG, JNK worked out). Now, we wait for developments off the early June equity highs = Flat everything.
06/03 0740: NFP favorable. The 6/1 notes pertain. A bumpy beginning, yet equities now weakening. Negative Astro intensifies through 6/10.
06/02 0730: ADP favorable for the positions. Status quo. The SPY 144min is posted, and provides a week+ nudge for the weekly.
06/01 0700: 5/31 began the trend changes: the Shorts-Equities,HYG,JNK,Oil, and Longs-TLT,VIX,Gold, with SPXS,TLT,DWTI,UVXY, and NUGT all improving their technicals. These positions likely to extend into next week. A new 144min or daily chart, after the close.
ETFs: Some Liquid and favored US Equity, US Bond, US Gold, US Oil:
Long = Buy: SPY,SSO,SPXL,QQQ,TQQQ, IWM,TNA,UVXY,TLT,TMF,GLD,NUGT,UWTI Profits on Rising prices
Short = Buy: SH,SDS,SPXS,PSQ,SQQQ,RWM,TZA, XIV, TBF,TMV,DZZ,DUST,DWTI Profits on Falling prices
TAO 9 : Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 9
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below
SPY Weekly 04/27/16 1430:
(6/10 Addendum: SPY rose to a high of 212.52 on 6/8, +1.3%. The 4/27 chart, when updated, has even more merit now, with the 6/6-10 lower week.)
This chart features risk/reward. The risk is a 2+% rise to 213-5, the previous highs and upper 2.0 BB. The reward is a 3-5% fall to 199-203, moving average congestion, and the inner 1.0 BB average. Below that are the lower inner 1.0 BB (190) and lower outer 2.0 BB (185). The most probable is both, in 2 legs lower, over at least 1 mth.
Unlike most US Presidential cycles (equities higher into the election), 2016 is most likely to have global equity weakness into early 2017, reflected in the TAO 10 planetary Transit Aspect Oscillator. Its values remain below zero into 2017. The Central Banks unprecedented policies are treading upon globally warming Arctic ice.
Transit Aspect Oscillator TAO 9: 1/3/2006--12/31/2015.
The SP 500 is black, left scale, with the recent Aug/Sep correction notable, upper right. The TAO 9, red, right scale, with Zero mid-scale. As the TAO 9 declined sharply through Zero, there was the Global equity drop. The TAO 9 last sustained below zero values mid-2007--late 2011. The continuous very low (-5000 to -8000) TAO 9 (and TAO 8) readings reflect Global pessimism, suffering and economic contraction. From 1900 up to the present, every time the TAO 9 has dropped to and/or sustained the current negative readings there has been a significant economic decline. The statistical significance is greater than 1:10,000 against chance. Therefore, it is likely 2015-16, the global recession evolves further.
This TAO 9 descent does not seem dramatic, nor especially significant. However, historically, over the last 115 years, It Is. Recently, there were similar TAO 9 drops 1973-75 (oil shock), 1980-83 (ending of stagflation, high interest rates), and 1987-1993 (US equity, Jap equity/housing/asset crashes). Then, the Transit Aspect Oscillator made a record sustained 6 year rally, 1995-2000 (dot com and other bubbles), declining sharply 2001-03 (9/11, recession). Rose into 2007 and stalled (showing the futility of Bernacke discounts).
The global economy (misery) persisted 2008-2011. 2014 ended the global CB QE ramps as per 2015 TAO 9 and 2014 TAO 8 graphs.
TAO 9 7/1cdt 1420 Holding into 7/5.
1000 Buying SPXS (UVXY). 0820 Exiting UVXY, SQQQ open. 0701 note
6/12: Astro is reliable longer term (mths-yrs) for equities (real-time for people). Equities today only partially represent the current global human condition (TAO 10). TAO 10 weakens into Sep 2016, and a likely yearly equity low.
Transit Aspect Oscillator TAO, an astro scientific index. Transit aspects as they affect global psychology, mundane events, and economics. There is a Global financial/political traumatic restructuring in progress. Global assets peaked 2014-15. Global GDPs decelerating. Deflation dominant. US/German Bonds stable.
6/20: Equities: Late June high, Sep low. US highs, then a Jul/Aug/Sep collapse.
Equity Charts: 6/12 New $NYA 144min posted below. 2006-2015 TAO 9 beneath charts.
6/10/16 1500 $NYA 144min, 4 bars/day (5/6-6/10):
The NY Comp usually provides the clearest one index view of US equity trends (esp. when used with VEU and $VIX). All 3 painted the same picture last week: the last gasp of an internally weak rally. Here the focus is on 6/8 failing to exceed the 2.0BB and lower last bar high, 6/9 within the 1.0BB, with the 6/10 collapse below the lower 1.0BB.
The 6/6-6/8 breakout set the stage for a sharper decline. However,
6/10's fall stopped at the 16dama (64bar) & 25dema (100bar) combo. It may take NYA a few days to break below 6/10's low, but it is very likely to happen next week, and then continue lower to 10270, the 64dema, and then 9650, in phases yet to be known. The 12dama (48 bar) is now rolling over, and 1.0BBs ready to decline and widen.
The 2 primary MACDs are included. All 4 lines are used together, and are now declining. In short, a large decline is probably beginning.
ETF Position: 7/1cdt 1420: Technicals and Astro. Ending of a rally within a global Bear market.
VIX In. See VIX Trades & Hx
Current Buy Date Time Price Stop Sell Date Time Price %
In SPXS 7/1 1000 13.75 13.48
Stats: L = limit s = stop out
From 7/1/16: %+/-- # #+ #- %+ %-- Pts+ Pts- Ave%+ Ave%-
7/21/15 - 7/1/16 149.0 81 52 29 64 36 198.7 -50.7 3.8 -1.8