Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 now available: 12/ 08/ 14
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
ETF RESULTS: Net Investing Stats From Initiation: July 1, 2014
ETFs %+/-- # #+ #- %+ %-- Pts+ Pts- Ave+ Ave-
EQUITIES 123.8% 50 37 13 74 26 197.4 -20.6 5.3% -1.6%
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
1) Bull/ Bear market positive earnings: Equities, Bonds and Gold (USD based)
2) TAO 8 research: scientific astrocyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
3) Submit Weekly Charts and Analysis: Stocks, Bonds and Gold
4) Research statistically other Numerical and Planetary cycles
7/ 2 0740: More hospital for my wife today (ok, but takes time). NFP midline. Until the rebound rally runs its course, the Greece vote, CB response, and Bonds exhaust the higher rate trend, shorting (SPXS,TZA,SQQQ et.al.) equities is risky. Ideally, SPX rises to 2095-2100, and stalls.
7/ 1 0500: This site will no longer post positions based on intraday data. Longer daily and weekly assessments only. The SPXL,TQQQ,TNA signals were valid yesterday, at 1200, but intraday. This am they are improving. This am, back to the hospital.
6/30 1200: For the next 12 months, focusing on SP 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000. Site update in progress.
0700: 6/29 was a culmination of 2015's trading, progressively internally weaker, until failure. The CBs are losing credibility and control. As with Oct 2014: probably not quite over yet. The VIX move was panic, and a warning of the underlying instability...worse to come into and through 2016. The ETFs EW_, fill in the blank, have already or are now following IYT and XLU bearish lead. Today, the ECB and Greece pretend again... In the US, it's pre-holiday seasonality, with a rebound rally likely into Friday, then fading.
6/29 0700: $VIX, intraday low to high 6/23-6/26, gained 25.0% (11.93 to 14.91). Therefore, as forecast, UVXY (and TVIX), as their x2 ETF is structured, should have gained nearly 50%. UVXY was up only 10.4%, TVIX 10.0%. VXX (x1) gained 5.3%. Similarly misbehaving were the inverses: both XIV (-x1) and SVXY (-x1) were both lower only 5.0%. Until proved differently, these 5 ETFs are unreliable, and SOMC coverage is stopped. This was the main reason why all SOMC positions went flat Friday. $VIX, and derivative ETFs, were major strategic trading parts.
The weekend featured Greece, Puerto Rico, China and SpaceX, hence globally lower Equities and higher (solvent countries) Bonds. The global Central Banks are this week on trial for their credibility lives. From the sidelines, for awhile, I will wait. Upon reentry, VIX will be absent.
6/26 0700: Bonds went flat 6/25, and that is not favorable for the remaining trio. Belief in the CBs still prevails. Exit of SPXS/UVXY/NUGT likely.
6/25 0600: Away all day for a funeral. Equities: today a higher open, with a moderated higher close. Exit signals unlikely, but possible.
6/24 0700: UVXY will be a buy at/near the open, a 10+% gain expected. The technicals are very favorable for the SPXS/TMF/UVXY/NUGT quad into next week. All are reversing, within their 2.2/1.1 BBands, and with intraday MACD turns. Equities: lower open, meander, lower close.
6/23 0700: Equities, higher early (SPX 2130 limit), with a lower close likely. Adverse on TMF, UVXY as well, but ok. NUGT entry probable.
6/22 0845: A UVXY re-enter is probable, as well as TMF. The equity rally is event related short-covering into near term exhaustion levels.
0700: The weekend risk was "a deal". The open will be adverse. $SPX overhead 2126-8, to be tested early, then weakening.
6/19 0700: 6/18 prepared the SPXS/TMF/UVXY buy zones. The upper 2.2 and 1.1 BBs as well as a short term MACD oscillator are setting the risk limits. (MAs are relatively useless right now.) 4-6hrs ago was an ideal entry period; we'll see into the open. Gold remains favorable.
6/18 0700: The SPXS trade will likely be unwound; VIX needs to weaken more, and R2 (Russell 2000) remains in bull mode. The end result of the FED inaction 6/17 is to fuel speculation and destabilize currencies. Gold benefits, and bought on the close. The start of a Bull leg, maybe.
6/17 1400: Post FED, equities did rally. SPX 2106-7 is near term overhead. NYA and SPX retain lower trends.
0700: This am, last round of MD visits (wife), and ok. This pm, FED. Yawn probable. Ideally, a further equity rise sets up a sell. We're close.
6/16 0700: The 3 positions all exited at various times 6/15. R2 remains strongest, SP weakest. Today, as with 6/15, equities favor the upside after a lower open. The outer 2.2 BB of several indexes are providing one last support level, prior to the expected global equity collapse.
6/15 0700: None of the 3 current signals could be posted, (SPXS, TMF, UVXY...all on 6/12) and so don't exist. Probable dynamic week ahead. The $NYA is below major support and weakening. US Bonds remain primed for a rally. UVXY bought again 6/12. Favorable open; after we'll wait.
6/12 0500: End of MD series. Equity bias today is lower.
6/11 0600: More MD appointments today.
6/10 0700: A marginal overnight equity rally. Still in a waiting mode.
6/ 9 0700: The SPXL intraday rally 6/8 failed. Overnight, weak. Equities Are breaking down, slowly. Soon to accelerate. To the MD; back later in am.
6/ 8 1330: SPXL, supported by R2, with a tight stop: 5:1 reward/risk. Until R2 is done (this week...?), enjoy. Exit likely 6/10-11.
0700: Most equity overhead is about 1% higher, indicating a minimal, irregular counter-trend rally likely for 1-2 days = choppy. The daily models remain primed for a significant decline. The FED, next week. Today, a weak open with rally attempts. Being patient.
6/ 5 0850: The open temporarily exhausted both the bond and equity declines. TMF may be for today only. R2 remains the strongest of equities.
0740: NFP was significant for US (global) bonds. The yield rises are problematic. somc 5/1: "Until there is a repudiation of negative interest rates, the CBs still control." The dynamics of the last 1-2 weeks of bond trading suggests that CBs are losing control, with fallout in equities to follow.
Trading: early, equities lower, generally breaking through support. No immediate guidelines. Waiting. Bonds are continuing to plunge.
0600: 6/4, equity indexes stalled at support levels; not worth the risk of holding into this am's NFP. Re-entry likely.
6/ 4 1230: TMF (long US Bonds) is a short term (2-3 days) momentum trade, with support from the equity decline. High risk, given NFP 6/5.
0700: Overnight, positions improving, technically. Equities lower, yet choppy early, and weaken into 6/5 US NFP. TMF possible, again.
6/ 3 1030: Global bonds are bleeding. Chinese equities are destabilizing. Volatility benefits, with 2wks of basing, and again in the buy zone.
0720: ADP weak, but not weak enough. TMF, UVXY: probable failed trades and an exit early. The initial equity rally likely to fade.
6/ 2 0700: Stock indexes remain likely to deteriorate, as transports have been, into a major correction. The NYA has almost record level low breadth. We'll keep pressing the short side. VIX improved 6/1, and almost bought. Bonds likely to stabilize, into a rally with the equity decline. Gold mixed.
6/ 1 0700: Overhead for $SPX is 2118-20, to be tested early, then weakening. Likely a mixed and low range day.
5/ 29 0900: The $SPX (and other global indexes) is likely starting the long awaited (and TAO 9 forecast) correction. TLT (to 127), VIX bullish.
0735: Global GDPs weak, expected. Overhead $SPX 2126-30. SPXS re-entry likely, with US Bonds continuing to rally (see chart).
The Equity ETFs: primarily
SPXL = SP500 Long, x3, PROFITS FROM RISING SP 500 Prices.
SPXS = SP500 Short, x3, PROFITS FROM DECLINING SP 500 Prices.
The TAO 9 is now declining into the zone where social/political/economic upheavals will occur this time, akin to late 29-32-35 (US,Europe),
late 87-90 (US, Japan), late 00-03 (US, Global), late 07-10 (US,Global), and late14-16 (GLOBAL). The Unraveling will be widespread.
An Investor can benefit from Equity and US Bond moves through long and inverse ETFs. Maintaining a relatively simple, disciplined investing strategy, over time, favors positive results. A key is identifying the local trend technically, using the ETFs with stops, and repeating the process.
HOME of the TAO 9: 7/2 0740cdt
ETFs: Stock Index, US Bonds, US Gold, Volatility, Cycles (Numeric and Astronomic)
Equities: Flat (6/26). Transports, Utilities have entered the Bear. Others to follow.
US Bonds: Flat (6/25). The 2015 Bear began 2/3/15. Brief rallies with equity drops.
US Gold: Flat (6/26). Will be volatile, as currencies destabilize. By fall 2015, bull.
Volatility: 6/29: Major VIX ETFs are disfunctional: UVXY,TVIX,VXX,XIV,SVXY. Note below.
6/ 4: TAO 9 astro index: falling rapidly, below zero: major equity decline likely, soon.
The comparisons and correlations include: 20-21, 30-32, 80-82, 87-90, 01-03, 07-09.
12/ 8: TAO 9 Graphs, 3 Page Analysis, and 2015 Financial Forecast, available.
Charts: 5/26 SPX Chart posted. 5/12 US Bond weekly posted.
Daily Commentary below trades/results
5/12 Equities are the main focus for SOMC. The overview: equities are entering a Bear market.
TAO 8 : Brief summary and Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlates positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 8 is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of the specific planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 8
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 8 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
8 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 8
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The emerging equity season will favor falling leaves, and the selling of rallies.
Current status: 7/2 0740cdt: (Also refer to Equity/Gold/Bond Trading Hx)
ETF Current Buy Date Price Stop Sell Date Price
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Technical Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below