Schulz on Market Cycles Richard Schulz
SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability. Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions. SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice. It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance. Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance. No return of capital is implied or guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here. Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument. All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz. The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright. The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.
TAO 9 Applications:
To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have
statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable
predictive value relative to global stock prices. The creation of the
TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.
The rise and
fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the
rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the
TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate,
manifesting in stock market declines. When the TAO 9 is above zero and
rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically,
with rising stock market prices.
SOMC combines the TAO 9's
intrinsic value with 25+ years of technical market analysis and
developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the
stock and commodity markets effectively.
The graph of the
aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree
of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown. This graph (not
shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the
nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and
mathematical. SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical
models to time and trade intermediate and long term.
Richard Frank Schulz
07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA
Bachelor of Science, 1978
Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987
TAO 9 now available: 12/ 08/ 14
1) TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation
2015 Financial Forecast included.
$25.00 PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)
Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address
2) Subcription: Not available currently ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)
a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation
b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed
c) Weekly commentary and technical charts
ETF RESULTS: Net Investing Stats From Initiation: July 1, 2014
Russell 2000 %+/-- # #+ #- %+ %-- Pts+ Pts- Ave+ Ave-
ETFs 64.6% 25 19 6 76 24 129.2 -10.5 6.8% -1.7%
Usual drawdown 5-8%, at times, 10-20% x3 leverage affects both profits and losses
GOLD (GLD) 19.5% 5 5 0 100 0 19.5 0.0 3.9 n/a
US BONDS (TLT) 24.7% 6 6 0 100 0 24.7 0.0 4.1 n/a
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL 61108-7503
1) Bull/ Bear market positive earnings: Equities, Bonds and Gold (USD based)
2) TAO 8 research: scientific astrocyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications
3) Submit Weekly Charts and Analysis: Stocks, Bonds and Gold
4) Research statistically other Numerical and Planetary cycles
COMMENTARY... (12/ 8: Older trading notes have been moved to Trading Notes History)
12/26 0700: TZA needs to close higher today (R@ lower).for the trade to be viable. Gold is probably forming an irregular bottom.
12/24 0600: Equities are likely to be a little higher early, lower later. TLT is now ok. Enjoy the holiday celebrations.
12/23 0900: Upper BB resistance after a 5% move. Daily momentum is still weak, and ready to weaken more. TLT marginal.
0700: The holiday equity rally has a 50/50 of ending today. It is technically stretched. Bond prices weaken with gold bottoming.
12/22 0700: Into Xmas, equities consolidating the FED/short-covering rally. At overhead resistance near the opening levels. Bonds likely to decline more for a few days. Gold trendless, with a broad range. I'm near Detroit for family time. Enjoy
12/19 0700: The equity models are now mixed, as is Gold. Bonds are in full sell mode. So, status quo. Within the next 2 weeks, a change in the models used may occur, with the shift being to longer term models. The shorter ones have the posted trades from 7/1, and that is sufficient for now.
12/18 0700: Equities overnight, very close now to overhead resistance. Bonds selling off. Gold continues choppy.
12/17 1400: Post-FED, better than a post-mortem; TNA achieved it's goal. The Bond short has become more probable, and staying with it.
0700: Ahead of the FED, no change. The current positions are short term, and still probable.
12/16 0900: Short term momentum has turned favorable. A reversal, if it happens, can be quick given current conditions. Bonds likely exhausted.
0700: The global equity decline continues. Being too conservative had a price--no profit. At present, we wait. The recent declines are forecast to be only the beginning of more substantial weakness. The TAO 9 describes optimism turning into outright pessimism. Into the FED, we watch.
12/15 0700: An equity rebound today, and may last a few days. Observing until it concludes, with Bonds and Gold moving lower.
12/12 0700: SPY initiated an intraday sell 12/11 at 1300, that awaits confirmation and a lower risk entry.
12/11 0700: Normalizing, statistically, for awhile, favoring long equities, and short Bonds & Gold. The longer equity trend remains lower.
12/10 1400: Risk increased. As with 12/9, when in doubt, sit out. VIX has far outperformed, and is likely for a retracement, ergo, equity rally.
0730: Support held. Momentum is mixed. The primary equity trigger still favors the sell side.
12/ 9 1300: Unusual behavior in the Russell 2000 and Gold. When in doubt, sit out.
0730: Working with either financial or astro cycles, one never really "knows": it's methodology and probabilities, applied with persistence. As with the House in Las Vegas, favorable odds over time nets profits. The 12/ 8 closing IWM chart indicated a sell, and this am is confirming. The commentary goes into the details. It's a serious chart. The TAO 9 indicates that by early Jan 2015 assets/equities will appear vulnerable. More later.
12/ 8 1200: The TAO 9 is now available. It is now even more fundamentally sound, broader in planetary pair inclusion, stands the test of time (from 1900), and, given the current economic conditions (currencies and oil, especially), gives a unique insight on global economic direction.
0600: This post is earlier than normal, early morning engagements. Almost lower on Friday's close, with weakening equities from the AM on ok. Overnight, the weakness is continuing, with more expected. Dec 5-8 was projected to be a turn, and it is upon us. The TAO series has been one of sequential improvements, and now has 25 planetary pairs, with both shorter and longer term cycles. If the TAO 9 retains its historical, scientific correlation, then 2015 will be a surprise to many. Bonds and Gold are just giggling.
12/ 5 0740: Post-Jobs, equity futures rose to resistance, and have stalled. Today, after higher early, stalling, with a lower close likely. Both Bonds and Gold are establishing directions.
7/ 12: 2014 is both a 7 and a 4 year, and 2nd of a Pres Election cycle. These suggest a lower bias. This is usually, at minimum, a correction cycle. At maximum, it is a Trend Reversal, from extended Bull to Bear. The above equity, bond and gold models usually start with the 196m signal, and progress through daily into weekly, as a new trend evolves. Mars has been active as a trigger for recent global events.
.....R2 is the Russell 2000, the below are liquid ETFs
IWM = R2 Long, x1, UWM = R2 Long, 2x, TNA = R2 Long, 3x PROFITS FROM RISING SMALL CAPS.
RWM = R2 Short, x1, TWM = R2 Short, 2x, TZA = R2 Short, 3x PROFITS FROM DECLINING SMALL CAPS.
12/ 1: IWM has an elongated (20 days) topping formation. All major indexes are losing momentum. Japan is exerting currency pressure on China, Eurozone, and others. Oil is causing trade balance/income issues for many countries. Dec 2014 is not likely to be seasonally higher.
8/ 5: Given the current economic environment, and the high probability of severe dislocations soon, 3 time frames of R2 models will now be used. Equal weight is given to both the Leverages and the Time Frames.
The TAO 9 is now declining into the zone where social/political/economic upheavals will occur this time, akin to late 29-32-35 (US,Europe),
late 87-90 (US, Japan), late 00-03 (US, Global), late 07-10 (US,Global), and late14-16 (GLOBAL). The Unraveling will be widespread.
An Investor can benefit through using the Inverse ETFs. Maintaining a simple, disciplined, timing strategy, over time, favors positive results.
HOME of the TAO 9: 12/ 26 0700cst.
Equity ETFs, Gold, US Bonds, Cycles (Numeric and Astronomic)
Equities: Short. Longer term, The Bear begins, with 20+% declines 2015.
Gold (GLD): Flat. Will be volatile, as global currencies destabilize.
US Bonds: Flat. Short term rallies on sharp equity declines.
12/ 8: TAO 9 Graphs, 3 Page Analysis, and 2015 Financial Forecast, now available .
The TAO 9 is starting a significant bearish plunge for equities/assets/sentiment.
Equity Charts: 12/ 8 IWM chart, posted (also with Bond, Gold, VIX comments)
Daily Commentary below trades/results
TAO 8 : Brief summary and Graph
The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPRC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.
Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500: n=3602, r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlates positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance. This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown. As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001. Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results. That is for future generations.
TAO 8 is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:
1) An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair
2) The selection of the specific planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations
3) Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 8
4) Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators
The TAO 8 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life. The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures. The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.
8 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance). When the TAO 8
falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.
TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014 Vertical is yearly/quarterly.
TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange. SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.
8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The emerging equity season will favor falling leaves, and the selling of rallies.
Current portfolio (cdt): 12/26 0700cst: (Also refer to Equity/Gold/Bond Trading Hx)
Russell 2000 ETFs
ETF Date Time Stop
TZA Buy 12/23 0900 12.01 11.64
Not in the portfolio, but tracked:
The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, distinct from the Bradley model
1) 100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Technical Aspect Oscillator
2) A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance
a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability
b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability
3) SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions
TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below