Schulz  on  Market  Cycles                        Richard  Schulz


SOMC tries to ensure that the information provided is complete and correct, but does not warranty its accuracy or reliability.  Information and opinions may change without notice, so readers are advised to check any material items(s) with an adviser before making any decisions.  SOMC is for information purposes only, and does not constitute any kind of investment advice.  It should also be noted that simulated performance is not a guide to future performance.  Neither is past performance a necessarily reliable indicator of future performance.  No return of capital is implied or guaranteed.  There is a risk of loss of capital whenever money is invested, and we do not hold ourselves responsible for your stock trading or investing decisions.  No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any presented or discussed here.  Absolutely consult your registered financial advisor and your risk trading plan before ever investing or trading any financial instrument.   All intellectual property rights in SOMC and website are, and at all times remain, the property of Richard Frank Schulz.  The content of Schulz on Market Cycles (in particular, the TAO 2, future generations of the TAO, the TAOscope, TAOgraph, TAOtransits, TAOtrader, and other TAO products), are protected by copyright.  The reproduction or duplication of information or data, especially the use of terms, wording, figures or graphs, is subject to prior approval of Richard Frank Schulz.

Transit Aspect Oscillator  A Global (personal) Psychological and Economic Indicator

       TAO 9 Applications:

        To the best of my knowledge, from Donald Bradley's efforts in the 1960's to the present time, there has not been a published astronomical oscillator correlating real-time with global stock indexes as the TAO 9 does. The study of the mathematical nature of the TAO  and its correlations with multiple realms of human activities has the potential to become a new field of scientific endeavor.
       The three TAO values (short, intermediate, and long term) and trends have statistical reliability and significance, and, therefore, probable predictive value  relative to global stock prices.  The creation of the TAO oscillators has been a 30 year project.   
       The rise and fall of global psychological optimism and pessimism correlate with the rise and fall of global wealth, as measured by stock prices. When the TAO 9 is below zero and falling, fear and pessimism dominate, manifesting in stock market declines.  When the TAO 9 is above zero and rising, happiness and optimism dominate, synchronistic, statistically, with rising stock market prices.  
      SOMC combines the TAO 9's intrinsic value with 25+ years of  technical market analysis and developing technical trading systems to time the price movements of the stock and commodity markets effectively.
      The graph of the aspectarian (that assigns positive and negative numbers to every degree of planetary pair angular separation) is not shown.  This graph (not shown) happens to validate some traditional astrological tenets on the nature of aspects. The TAO 9, however, is strictly astronomical and mathematical.  SOMC uses both the TAO 9 and relatively simple mechanical models to time and trade  intermediate and long term.



Richard Frank Schulz 

07/ 09/ 1950, 1510 est, Detroit, MI, USA 
Bachelor of Science, 1978         

Master of Science, Clinical Psychology, 1987

TAO 9 available:

1)  TAO 9 1980-2015 and 1997-2015 graphs with a 3 page explanation

     2015 Financial Forecast included.

              $25.00    PayPal, Check, Money Order, etc., (USD or equivalent)

              Sent via snail mail only, please provide mailing address

2)  Subcription:   Not available currently  ($ 225/ year, $50/ 2months)

     a) The above hard copies of the TAO 9 graphs and explanation

     b) Real-time Equity, Bond, Gold and VIX positions and alerts, emailed

     c) Weekly commentary and technical charts

Richard Schulz
2240 Arizona Ave.
ROCKFORD, IL   61108-7503




SOMC Purposes:   10/21/16

1) Explore the EMA Oscillators across bi-daily and hourly data, and 5+ diverse ETF sectors

2) TAO 9 research: scientific astro cyclical advances, with multiple real world, real time applications

3) Timely technical charts and analysis: Stocks/ETFs usually, with some Bonds and Gold

4) Publish statistically sound Planetary cycles studies, whether positive or negative correlations

5) Utilize 30yrs of Astro and Trading experience

NOTES...                                                                                                                                              Previous notes on Trading Notes Hx

10/24  0750:  Mea Culpa:  The NYSE Expo is long.  It is more effective than me.  This am, Expo will add to its gains.  My somc positions will lose.  The hourly EMA Oscillators have only limited and yet to be defined use.  This week, both Expo and the SPX Wk support this rally to SPX 2090-2100.

Soon, I will post the current 5 days (10 data) of the NY Expo, updated daily, so that everyone can observe and verify how it functions.

10/21  1400: There is one particular ETF that seems to be a major controlling force.  Both Expo Hr & Expo Dy have held long, and can't reverse today.

The IWM Expo Hr is short.  Also, on a tech chart basis, TZA will be held into 10/24.  UVXY is held if the stop survives.

          0750: The progress on the hourly Expos led to the signals 10/20.  The Expo above will likely reverse short today.  The weekly SPX tech chart above still applies.  Overnight, equities are likely beginning a 2nd and more extensive slide.  Parallels maybe to Oct/Nov/Dec 2007...

10/20  0750: Away this am.  Equity weakness emerging again. 

10/19  0750: The benevolent Expo Genie is out of the bottle.  It is the hare, opening a lead of 144+ (12 x 12) practical variations.  I am the tortoise, amazed by the newly created Expo vistas, and so far unfazed by the tasks at hand.  One by one...  The 10/18 court session had a late am recess, with just enough time to come home, post the Expo signal, and leave.  Today, weekly tech chart aside, Expo is in buy mode for a few days.

10/18  0745: An unexpected all day court session.  The Expo will be near a buy at 0930 if NYSE >10570.  TZA stop unchanged.

10/17  0745: Expecting a <1% equity rally into 10/18, then another 2-4% drop by 10/21 close. Lower next week.  I am adding hourly models for timing the daily entries/exits.  Over the next 2wks, my goal is to complete the basic 12 ETF Expo daily and hourly data entries, and initial model selection.

Today, the overnight futures (they are far easier to trade--minimal close/open gaps), after initial weakness, have had hrly Expo buying. 

10/14  0745: In the 20min Expo models, 10/13 at 1310, there was a buy reversal.  But I will not post those here right now.  Sufficient to stay with the 2data/day models, which are holding short equities.  As this Expo work progresses, the models are improving in leaps forward.  The EMA OSC tools are far exceeding what I even thought was possible.  I am still immersed in the tedium of quantifying and formatting the observations across 2 primary time frames (x2data/day and x20data/day), and 7 ETFs:  the basis $NYA, and XIV, QQQ, IWM, XLF, GLD, USO (all with x3 liquid leverage potential).  For the 2data/day models, also included are TLT, HYG.  Eventually, UUP and FXE.  For now, I'm a bit overloaded. Today, a rebound rally.  Expo is not close to a reversal buy (NYSE), and will hold short into 10/17.  

10/13  0745: As it is posted here, Expo will be a reversal system--always long or short.  The posting data points/times are 0930 and 1430cdt.  Today, it is very unlikely that Expo will reverse long.  I am away later this am and early aft.  More upon return. 

10/12  0745: EXPO table results updated.  Ideally, a new EXPO graph today.  And an expanded note.  A new EPXO page soon. Meanwhile, working...

10/11  0745:  It's been an unexpected 6+wk creative experience.  Intense, even for me.  The Expo is now refined further, with a new graph and improved results posted soon, with more fundamentally sound AND simpler system rules...the best of both worlds, integrating 28yrs of technical analysis and work.  Now for the applications, plural.  There are many.  Equities today: 10/10 was as forecast.  The Expo model(s) is ready for a sequence of relatively major (5+%) equity price swings. 2, 3, 4...? no one knows.  But they will come.  10/11 accelerating the lower trend.

10/10  0745:  NYSE overhead is 10710-30.  The Expo sell will hold short at that level. 

10/07  0745:  The Expo model used is retaining the sell, but close to a buy. Likewise, equity futures after NFP.  More will be known at 0930.

10/06  0745:  The EXPOs, global markets in general, the US SE coast, and maybe adding S. Cal, are all due for the Big One.  The Plunge is likely.

10/05  0745:  For one view of Bull:Bear sentiment, on StockCharts enter IWM:SPY weekly, use both a 16/36/12 MACD and MACD histogram.  The large bar lower 9/5-9 started a bearish reversal, and the rebound rally is just completing now.  Similar bearish patterns across most indexes.

XLRE since 8/1 is -10%, significant given the structure of the US economy/banks/loans.  US dollar resuming a rising trend.  QEnding. The Sep 12 Bradley CapLunar, Jupiter (rain) conj. Asc, extends along a diagonal from Iowa to S. of Puerto Rico, where Matthew intensified.  One for the record books...  Today, equities start higher, oscillate, then may settle lower.  10/6-7 distinctly lower.  Let the plunge begin, as the US enters Q3 recession.

10/04  0745:  The Expo being used will hold the buy on any continued rally.  Expo will sell on sustained later day weakness.  The expected 1-2% equity rise has occurred.  And today is 10/4, with this rally likely being "over and out...".  The long awaited 10+% decline is nigh. TAO+/- agrees.

10/03  0740:  The forecast is for the equity rebound rally to go the way of Brexit, figuratively and literally.  Any 10/3-4 upside ends in a weekly rout.

          TZA buy possible today, and nearly certain prior to the 10/4 close.

ETFs:  Some Liquid and favored US Equity, US Bond, US Gold, US Oil:

Long  =  Buy: SPY,SSO,SPXL,QQQ,TQQQ, IWM,TNA,UVXY,TLT,TMF,GLD,NUGT,UWTI    Profits on Rising prices

Short =  Buy:   SH,SDS,SPXS,PSQ,SQQQ,RWM,TZA, XIV,  TBF,TMV,DZZ,DUST,DWTI    Profits on Falling prices

                      Technical  Charts

TAO 9 :   Brief TAO 9 summary and TAO 8 Graph

    The TAO 8 correlated with the SP 500, 1/1/1980 through 08/31/2014 PPMC is p < .0001, >1:10,000 against chance.    

          Pearson Product-Moment Correlation for TAO 8 and SP 500:   n=3602,   r=+0.48, p < .0001, which means that the TAO 8 correlated positively with the SP 500, both rising and falling, greater than 1:10,000 against chance.  This strength of correlation implies a causal mechanism, which is yet unknown.  As a comparison, to be very sure that the long sought after Higgs boson had been found, scientists used a 1:10,000 confidence level: p <.0001.  Current modern physics has no viable mechanism for explaining the TAO 8 results.  That is for future generations.

    TAO 9 Transiting Aspect Oscillator is a compilation of four fundamental primary concepts and functions:

1)  An Aspectarian based upon the weighted harmonics of the numbers 2 and 3, which gives positive/negative values to the transiting angular separation of each planetary pair

2)  The selection of 25 specific transiting planetary pairs used in the TAO 8 calculations

3)  Mathematical summations of those Aspectarian values (both exponential and unique astro averages) to generate the Quick TAO, Slow TAO and TAO 9

4)  Zeroing those summations over the selected time frames to create scientifically applicable oscillators


     The TAO 9 is a 100% mathematical, quantitative, zeroed oscillator that can be compared to real world, real time realms of human life.  The TAO 8 happens to highly correlate with the Global equities markets, and other financial, social and political measures.   The TAO 8 is a Directional Astronomical Indicator.

     As TAO 9 rises, Global Psychology tends to rise and equities/assets tend to gain value reliably (1:10,000 against chance).  When the TAO 9 falls, Global Psychology declines, pessimism emerges, and equities/assets tend to fall in value.


TAO 8: 1/ 1/ 1997 to 3/ 31/ 2014    Vertical is yearly/quarterly.

                TAO 8, red. Quick TAO, blue. Slow TAO, orange.  SP 500, black. SP 500, BLS Inflation Adjusted, light black and the lowest equity cycle on the graph.

8/ 11/ 14:   The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought.  The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness.  And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability.  The 2015 season will favor selling equity rallies.

The TAO 9: An astro economic indicator, similar to but distinct from the Bradley model

     1)  100% objective, mathematical, astronomic and scientific Transiting Aspect Oscillator

     2)  A real-time, directional astro indicator, now with more than 1:10,000 significance

             a) TAO 9 high/rising brings optimism, raises equities, asset values and stability

             b) TAO 9 low/falling activates pessimism, erodes assets and adds social instability

     3)  SOMC: Integration of astro, cycles, and technical indicators for investment positions

TAO 8 graph, 1997 - 3/31/2014 below

ETF  Position10/24cdt  0830:  Technicals and Astro.   Global Bear market, Deflation, TAO Fear Elevated.

                                                                                                          (Volatility: Only on VIX Trades & Hx)

Current       Buy        Date  Time     Price      Stop  Sell  Date  Time    Price          %

Flat             TZA       10/20  1232     28.64L                     10/24  0830   28.15      -   1.7

Exit             TQQQ   10/18  0930    125.80                      10/20  0932  124.80s    -   0.8

Exit             TZA       10/12  1430      28.27                      10/18  0930    29.04     +   2.7    

Exit             TZA       10/10  0900      26.53                      10/12  0846    28.42     +   7.1

L =limit   s = stop out


From 7/1/16:              Net%+/--   #    #+  #-    W%  L%      Sum+   Sum-    Ave%+   Ave%-

EQUITY  ETFs                   29.2       28    15    13      53      47        47.7     - 18.5         3.2       -  1.4


7/21/15 -  7/1/16               149.0        81    52    29     64     36       198.7      -50.7        3.8         -1.8

10/19  EXPO position:   Buying  NYSE,  from 10/18cdt 1930, @  10550                                    Richard  Schulz

     10/20  1200:  Some Hourly Expo's are now short.  As an adjunct to EXPO bi-daily, indicative of a turning point alert.

     EXPO Chart: 5/16 through 10/12 0930                                                              EXPO:  Exponential Oscillators

      The fundamental theory dates back to my 1988 models and experience.  My hand graphs, originating in 1988, have been transformed into quantitative mathematical spreadsheets, with a few simple algorithms and trading rules.

      The graph below shows the NYSE index, the Expo Index (EI) and the Expo Sum Index (ESI).  The EI is a zeroed oscillator. The ESI is the EI summed over time (divided by 20, for graphic scaling).  An EI above zero results from a rising equity trend, and produces a rising ESI.  Both the EI and ESI are amenable to the usual technical charting tools.  However,  the results posted here are from absolute EI % reversals.

     All oscillators are subject to 2 liabilities:  1) quick out-of-sync price moves, and 2) protracted low volatility.  5/16 through 10/12 has provided both.  Being exponential, the EI immediately responds to price moves (Rule #1), and has an objective doldrums filter (Rule #2).

     That is it.  1) the algorithms generating the EMAs, and EI, and 2) the 2 buy/sell rules based on the EI changes and values.
     There is no "track record" other than what is posted. The theoretical framework is sound.  Expo is a new invention at work, real time.

 NYSE   + / -
 % SUM
 16 May
 S 0930
 10330       0       0       0
 20 May
 B 1430
 10260     70
   0.7    0.7
 31 May
 S 1430
 10440   180
 6  Jun
 B 0930
 10530  -  90
 - 0.9
 9  Jun
 S 0930
 10560     30
 16 Jun
 B 1430
 10320   240
 24 Jun
 S 0930
 10340     20
 28 Jun
 B 0930
 10080   260
 5   Jul
 S 0930
 10440   360
 8   Jul
 B 1430
 10570  -130  - 1.2
 18 Jul
 S 0930
 10770   200
 4   Aug
 B 1430
 10710     60
 10 Aug
 S 1430
 10770     60
 2  Sep
 B 0930
 10850  -  80
 - 0.7
 9  Sep
 S 0930
 10780  -  70  - 0.6
 15 Sep
 B 1430
 10600   180
 23 Sep
 S 1430
 10720   120
 18 Oct
 B 0930
 10550   170


EXPO  NYSE  Signals   5/16 to Present

$SPX  Weekly   9/30/16 1500 Close.

     Brexit extended and ended a 2mth correction on 6/24-27, with a thrust higher that week.  The Sep 6-9 decline negated that, and started the MACD lower.  The weak, irregular rally of the last 2wks has not reversed the weakening 9/16/4 exp MACD.

     The upside for SPX next week is limited by the upper 1.0 BB at 2189, 1%.  That will likely happen early in the Oct 3 week, with several lower weeks to follow.  The first stop is 2100-20, then 2088, and freefall to about 2030, the rising lower 2.0 BB.

     The 4wk ama is below the 9wk (5% correction minimum usually).  Both the 4wk and 9wk are forecast to move lower than the 16wk ema = Bear conditions, and similar to both Aug and Dec 2015.


NYSE    TAO +/-    TAOp    ME/MA  5/16 - 10/15/16:       NYSE  with 3 Primary Astro Oscillators

10/4:     TAOp (the Orange TAOn on the graph) is the most primary and reliable TAO model, with greater than 1:10,000 significance back through 1900.  It is a zeroed planetary transit aspect oscillator, reflecting global psychology.  When above 0, more optimism (risk taking), when below, greater pessimism.  TAO +/- adds the Opti/Pess factor to the TAOp.  It has been declining since 8/16.  Pessimism increases over the next 2wks


EXPO Stats:        Sum%   T#    G#   L#    %G   %L   T G%  T L%  AveG% AveL%

5/16 - Present        15.6     17    13    4      76     24    19.0   -3.4      1.4       0.9

10/24cdt  0900  Leaving for the day.  0825 Exiting TZA open. 0750 note


                             FLEXIBLE, FOR MOST LIQUID MARKETS AND TIME FRAMES (and vital right now)

   1) EXPO  EMA Oscillators   2) ETF Technical Charts    3)  Astro TAO charts (in order of impact)


    10/24:       Equities.  Current rally remains weak.

    10/12:       EXPOEquity  and  Astro TAO charts and notes posted below.

    EXPO       Exponential Oscillators:  innovative technical tools. 
    ETF          Technical chart analysis featuring modified MA's and MACD's.

    TAO         Transit Aspect Oscillators: Astro scientific indexes.  Transit aspects as they affect global psychology, mundane events, and economics.  There is a Global financial/political traumatic restructuring in progress.  Global GDPs and GDIs decelerating.  Entering Q3/Q4 Recession.  Deflation dominant.  US/German Notes & Bonds stable.

   10/3:  The Sep 12 CapLunar ingress, with Jupiter (Pluvius) conj. Asc, is about to affect the US SE with Matthew++.

   8/17:  Equities: Eclipse 9/1.  8/15 high, with Sep/Oct 10-20+% lower.  Then a brief Clinton election rally into Jan 2017.

             This Solar Eclipse will have major, negative global impacts, with many hard (2nd/4th/8th harmonic) aspects.